Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
53 Davidson 59.0%   11   14 - 2 5 - 0 23 - 5 14 - 3 +9.2      +8.8 17 +0.4 159 62.3 327 +14.8 25 +21.5 1
71 Saint Louis 20.5%   10 - 5 2 - 1 19 - 10 11 - 6 +7.7      +4.0 74 +3.8 76 68.8 175 +7.6 76 +7.5 5
72 Dayton 23.3%   12 - 6 4 - 1 20 - 11 12 - 6 +7.5      +3.2 91 +4.3 69 62.5 322 +6.2 92 +10.0 2
75 Virginia Commonwealth 21.1%   10 - 6 3 - 2 18 - 11 11 - 7 +7.4      -2.9 259 +10.4 3 70.0 142 +7.3 82 +7.1 6
80 St. Bonaventure 23.1%   10 - 4 2 - 1 18 - 9 10 - 6 +7.2      +4.7 52 +2.5 98 63.3 316 +10.0 58 +9.1 4
89 Rhode Island 12.4%   11 - 4 3 - 1 19 - 9 11 - 6 +6.4      +1.7 127 +4.8 61 66.1 263 +6.3 91 +9.5 3
99 Richmond 7.4%   11 - 7 2 - 3 18 - 12 9 - 8 +5.7      +4.2 67 +1.5 124 69.9 143 +5.5 96 -0.3 8
123 George Mason 2.2%   7 - 7 0 - 1 13 - 14 6 - 8 +2.9      +1.9 118 +1.0 141 67.0 233 -0.5 177 -18.3 14
154 Massachusetts 0.7%   7 - 9 0 - 4 13 - 17 6 - 12 +0.5      +5.5 42 -5.0 317 72.6 75 -0.9 188 -13.5 13
157 Saint Joseph's 0.8%   8 - 8 2 - 3 13 - 15 7 - 10 +0.4      -0.2 181 +0.6 151 76.1 33 -0.2 174 -1.0 10
190 Duquesne 0.3%   6 - 9 1 - 2 11 - 17 6 - 10 -1.3      -0.4 188 -0.9 199 67.3 221 -2.8 216 -0.8 9
215 Fordham 0.2%   9 - 7 2 - 2 14 - 16 7 - 11 -2.4      -5.0 310 +2.6 96 68.9 174 -0.9 187 +2.0 7
226 La Salle 0.1%   6 - 9 1 - 4 10 - 18 5 - 13 -3.1      -2.5 248 -0.6 185 70.2 137 -5.6 264 -5.2 12
271 George Washington 0.0%   5 - 11 1 - 3 8 - 21 4 - 13 -6.1      -4.4 294 -1.7 222 70.5 129 -6.1 270 -1.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Davidson 1.8 59.8 20.6 10.2 5.3 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 3.7 13.9 18.4 18.7 16.3 13.1 9.3 5.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
Dayton 2.8 28.0 25.9 17.8 12.2 8.4 4.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 4.0 11.5 16.4 18.0 16.3 14.0 10.6 6.5 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 4.9 5.0 10.7 14.6 16.2 16.7 14.6 9.8 5.7 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 4.0 11.5 16.6 17.2 16.8 15.3 10.9 6.1 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Richmond 6.5 0.8 3.4 6.3 9.5 13.1 16.3 18.4 13.6 8.3 5.1 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2
George Mason 9.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.0 6.8 11.0 13.2 14.0 13.0 12.0 10.7 7.6 4.5
Massachusetts 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 3.1 5.6 9.4 12.3 13.5 13.8 12.6 11.6 9.6 6.1
Saint Joseph's 9.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 6.0 10.9 14.3 16.5 15.3 12.8 9.8 6.4 2.1
Duquesne 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.7 9.5 13.2 14.9 16.3 14.7 10.9 7.2
Fordham 9.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.2 7.3 12.2 14.6 15.3 14.0 11.3 8.7 5.5 3.0
La Salle 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.1 9.0 11.3 14.2 16.4 19.1 16.7
George Washington 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.9 4.5 7.6 11.0 15.7 22.7 33.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Davidson 14 - 4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 7.0 12.8 20.6 23.4 19.4 10.4 2.8
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.2 5.3 9.6 15.2 19.1 19.3 15.5 8.9 3.2 0.7
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.4 9.8 15.6 19.7 20.8 15.3 8.8 3.0 0.5
Virginia Commonwealth 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 6.4 11.4 16.3 19.6 18.6 13.4 7.4 2.6 0.5
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.5 10.0 15.1 20.0 18.5 15.1 8.7 3.3 0.6
Rhode Island 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.1 10.8 17.3 19.9 19.1 12.9 7.3 2.4 0.4
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.4 13.7 18.6 20.3 17.3 11.0 5.2 1.7 0.2
George Mason 6 - 12 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.2 10.4 14.9 17.5 18.3 14.6 9.4 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
Massachusetts 6 - 12 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.4 11.9 16.7 18.9 17.6 12.6 7.6 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.7 3.2 9.1 16.0 21.1 20.1 15.2 8.9 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 6 - 12 0.4 2.6 7.8 15.6 20.4 20.2 16.1 9.7 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 7 - 11 0.5 2.8 8.0 14.6 19.4 19.8 15.5 10.2 5.7 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
La Salle 5 - 13 1.9 7.3 15.0 20.0 20.4 16.3 10.3 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Washington 4 - 14 4.9 14.6 23.1 22.7 17.3 10.6 4.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Davidson 59.8% 42.2 13.5 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 13.9% 6.2 5.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Dayton 28.0% 15.4 9.2 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 11.5% 5.0 4.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 5.0% 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 11.5% 4.8 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Richmond 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Mason 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.0% 0.0
George Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Davidson 59.0% 23.6% 35.4% 11   0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.2 4.9 6.3 10.3 10.9 12.9 6.1 0.3 41.0 46.3%
Saint Louis 20.5% 14.2% 6.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.6 6.1 7.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 79.5 7.3%
Dayton 23.3% 15.2% 8.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 7.6 6.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 76.7 9.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 21.1% 13.2% 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 6.6 7.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 78.9 9.1%
St. Bonaventure 23.1% 11.8% 11.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.3 4.1 7.6 6.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 76.9 12.8%
Rhode Island 12.4% 11.0% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 87.6 1.6%
Richmond 7.4% 6.6% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 92.6 0.9%
George Mason 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 97.8 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Duquesne 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Davidson 59.0% 9.3% 53.9% 23.2% 5.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Saint Louis 20.5% 3.3% 18.9% 6.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 23.3% 3.6% 21.3% 7.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 21.1% 4.1% 18.9% 6.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 23.1% 5.6% 20.1% 6.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 12.4% 1.0% 11.9% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 7.4% 0.7% 7.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.7 41.4 46.9 10.8 0.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 0.1 50.8 42.1 6.7 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 48.0% 0.6 52.0 40.7 6.9 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.8% 0.1 86.2 13.3 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0