Davidson
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#53
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#25
Pace62.3#327
Improvement+0.9#136

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#17
First Shot+10.1#2
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#273
Layup/Dunks+2.8#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#6
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement+3.1#30

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#159
First Shot-0.6#192
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#85
Layups/Dunks+4.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#337
Freethrows+0.9#113
Improvement-2.2#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 7.3% 8.8% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.0% 63.1% 43.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.3% 51.0% 29.9%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 10.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 59.8% 65.3% 38.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.3% 9.3% 9.6%
First Round53.9% 58.2% 37.9%
Second Round23.2% 25.7% 13.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.8% 6.5% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.1% 1.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 2
Quad 24 - 36 - 4
Quad 310 - 116 - 6
Quad 48 - 024 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 146   Delaware W 93-71 84%     1 - 0 +20.5 +18.4 +2.5
  Nov 13, 2021 39   San Francisco L 60-65 44%     1 - 1 +5.6 -6.2 +11.8
  Nov 18, 2021 93   New Mexico St. L 64-75 61%     1 - 2 -4.8 -0.4 -5.6
  Nov 19, 2021 211   Penn W 72-60 86%     2 - 2 +9.7 +7.1 +4.4
  Nov 21, 2021 153   East Carolina W 76-67 79%     3 - 2 +9.5 +6.7 +3.4
  Nov 27, 2021 306   Robert Morris W 88-70 96%     4 - 2 +7.2 +8.5 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2021 195   @ Charlotte W 75-58 78%     5 - 2 +18.0 +8.1 +11.5
  Dec 04, 2021 340   William & Mary W 70-46 98%     6 - 2 +9.3 -8.4 +17.8
  Dec 12, 2021 217   @ Northeastern W 79-69 81%     7 - 2 +10.0 +11.9 -1.3
  Dec 18, 2021 285   Radford W 74-54 95%     8 - 2 +10.3 +6.5 +6.3
  Dec 21, 2021 16   Alabama W 79-78 30%     9 - 2 +15.5 +15.5 +0.0
  Jan 05, 2022 157   @ Saint Joseph's W 88-73 73%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +17.9 +15.0 +2.6
  Jan 08, 2022 89   Rhode Island W 72-68 69%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +7.9 +10.7 -2.3
  Jan 11, 2022 154   Massachusetts W 77-67 85%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +8.0 +3.2 +5.5
  Jan 14, 2022 99   @ Richmond W 87-84 54%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +11.3 +20.1 -8.8
  Jan 18, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 63-61 47%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +11.9 +10.6 +1.6
  Jan 22, 2022 215   @ Fordham W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 26, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-63 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 226   La Salle W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 01, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 271   @ George Washington W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 09, 2022 157   Saint Joseph's W 79-68 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 89   @ Rhode Island W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 71   Saint Louis W 73-69 66%    
  Feb 23, 2022 190   @ Duquesne W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 215   Fordham W 74-60 91%    
  Mar 02, 2022 123   George Mason W 74-65 80%    
  Mar 05, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 66-67 45%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 14 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 8.5 18.3 18.6 10.4 2.8 59.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.9 9.4 4.9 0.8 0.0 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.0 2.5 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.6 0.2 5.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 7.0 12.8 20.6 23.4 19.4 10.4 2.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8
16-2 99.7% 10.4    10.1 0.3
15-3 96.0% 18.6    15.9 2.7 0.1
14-4 78.3% 18.3    11.0 6.4 1.0 0.0
13-5 41.1% 8.5    2.4 3.8 1.9 0.4 0.1
12-6 9.3% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 59.8% 59.8 42.2 13.5 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.8% 99.2% 40.7% 58.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
16-2 10.4% 94.1% 34.8% 59.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 91.0%
15-3 19.4% 83.4% 30.0% 53.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 2.9 4.3 3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 76.2%
14-4 23.4% 67.2% 24.0% 43.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 4.5 4.7 1.4 0.0 7.7 56.8%
13-5 20.6% 46.2% 20.7% 25.5% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.1 2.1 0.1 11.1 32.2%
12-6 12.8% 28.6% 16.4% 12.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.1 9.1 14.5%
11-7 7.0% 16.9% 11.8% 5.0% 11.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 5.8 5.7%
10-8 2.6% 6.7% 6.1% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5 0.6%
9-9 0.8% 5.0% 5.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 12.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 59.0% 23.6% 35.4% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.2 4.9 6.3 10.3 10.9 12.9 6.1 0.3 41.0 46.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 3.6 3.9 12.5 28.7 34.9 14.6 5.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 97.7% 5.4 5.3 15.2 37.5 20.1 15.5 2.7 0.4 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 98.8% 6.1 3.3 9.4 17.9 32.1 21.5 8.2 5.5 0.9