Rhode Island
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#89
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#91
Pace66.1#263
Improvement+0.3#172

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot+1.3#142
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#145
Layup/Dunks+2.8#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#321
Freethrows+1.7#58
Improvement-1.7#279

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#61
First Shot+5.7#32
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#261
Layups/Dunks+5.6#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#119
Freethrows-1.0#262
Improvement+2.0#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 12.8% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.7% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 12.3
.500 or above 99.6% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 91.8% 71.1%
Conference Champion 11.5% 12.2% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round11.9% 12.3% 6.8%
Second Round3.2% 3.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 38 - 310 - 9
Quad 410 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 198   Boston University W 71-62 84%     1 - 0 +4.9 -6.6 +11.3
  Nov 12, 2021 227   Bryant W 83-64 87%     2 - 0 +13.3 +0.9 +11.3
  Nov 17, 2021 138   Boston College W 57-49 76%     3 - 0 +7.0 -8.6 +16.8
  Nov 20, 2021 121   Tulsa L 71-77 63%     3 - 1 -3.1 +6.0 -9.6
  Nov 21, 2021 138   Boston College W 71-65 68%     4 - 1 +7.6 +8.5 -0.1
  Nov 23, 2021 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-67 74%     4 - 2 -1.3 -2.2 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2021 210   Georgia St. W 94-59 85%     5 - 2 +30.2 +16.1 +13.4
  Dec 01, 2021 179   @ Harvard W 64-57 67%     6 - 2 +8.8 -5.7 +14.8
  Dec 04, 2021 44   @ Providence L 52-66 27%     6 - 3 -1.2 -8.3 +5.6
  Dec 07, 2021 284   Sacred Heart W 72-62 93%     7 - 3 +0.3 +3.4 -1.5
  Dec 13, 2021 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 82-58 82%     8 - 3 +20.7 +8.1 +12.7
  Jan 08, 2022 53   @ Davidson L 68-72 31%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +7.7 +4.4 +2.8
  Jan 12, 2022 157   Saint Joseph's W 75-64 79%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +8.9 -3.1 +11.3
  Jan 15, 2022 154   @ Massachusetts W 81-68 63%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +16.0 +5.7 +10.6
  Jan 19, 2022 226   La Salle W 56-54 87%     11 - 4 3 - 1 -3.6 -16.2 +12.6
  Jan 22, 2022 271   George Washington W 74-59 93%    
  Jan 25, 2022 99   Richmond W 70-67 64%    
  Jan 28, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 61-65 35%    
  Feb 02, 2022 215   @ Fordham W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 154   Massachusetts W 78-70 80%    
  Feb 08, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-63 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 53   Davidson L 67-68 51%    
  Feb 14, 2022 72   Dayton W 64-63 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 271   @ George Washington W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 22, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-67 37%    
  Feb 26, 2022 190   Duquesne W 72-62 84%    
  Mar 02, 2022 71   Saint Louis W 68-67 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 157   @ Saint Joseph's W 72-68 61%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.7 2.2 0.4 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.8 7.0 2.5 0.2 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.3 8.7 2.4 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 4.2 8.7 3.5 0.2 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 7.9 4.4 0.4 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.4 2.6 2.7 0.4 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.4 3.1 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.1 10.8 17.3 19.9 19.1 12.9 7.3 2.4 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 92.2% 2.2    1.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 64.6% 4.7    2.2 2.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 26.1% 3.4    0.6 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 4.8 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 75.5% 27.4% 48.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 66.2%
15-3 2.4% 49.9% 30.4% 19.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 28.1%
14-4 7.3% 29.6% 22.8% 6.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 5.2 8.8%
13-5 12.9% 19.1% 17.5% 1.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.5 1.9%
12-6 19.1% 13.7% 13.5% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 0.0 16.5 0.2%
11-7 19.9% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 18.0 0.0%
10-8 17.3% 6.2% 6.2% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 16.3
9-9 10.8% 4.0% 4.0% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4
8-10 6.1% 3.3% 3.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
7-11 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.4% 11.0% 1.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 87.6 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.9 5.3 26.3 42.1 21.1 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 88.0% 9.1 40.0 18.0 12.0 18.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 57.9% 10.4 1.8 14.0 12.3 19.3 10.5