Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#154
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#188
Pace72.6#75
Improvement-2.3#280

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#42
First Shot+6.2#26
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#239
Layup/Dunks-4.8#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.0#3
Freethrows+2.7#18
Improvement-4.7#354

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#317
First Shot-4.1#303
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#257
Layups/Dunks-4.2#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+2.3#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 20.6% 34.6% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.9% 24.1% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 6.2% 16.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 63 - 8
Quad 34 - 67 - 15
Quad 47 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 254   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-60 78%     1 - 0 +9.6 -2.9 +11.7
  Nov 12, 2021 134   @ Yale L 71-91 35%     1 - 1 -15.4 -4.4 -9.7
  Nov 15, 2021 56   Penn St. W 81-56 29%     2 - 1 +31.3 +17.7 +15.5
  Nov 18, 2021 147   Weber St. L 73-88 48%     2 - 2 -14.0 +3.4 -18.2
  Nov 19, 2021 175   UNC Greensboro W 93-90 OT 54%     3 - 2 +2.5 +18.1 -15.8
  Nov 21, 2021 242   Ball St. L 86-89 69%     3 - 3 -7.5 +3.3 -10.6
  Nov 24, 2021 262   Umass Lowell W 92-81 79%     4 - 3 +3.2 +11.6 -9.1
  Nov 27, 2021 64   Rutgers W 85-83 31%     5 - 3 +7.7 +19.5 -11.8
  Dec 04, 2021 179   Harvard W 87-77 64%     6 - 3 +6.8 +15.6 -8.4
  Dec 07, 2021 217   @ Northeastern L 76-82 52%     6 - 4 -6.0 +5.3 -11.5
  Dec 11, 2021 83   North Texas L 57-66 27%     6 - 5 -2.0 +0.9 -4.7
  Dec 19, 2021 219   Fairfield W 77-73 OT 71%     7 - 5 -1.2 -1.4 +0.0
  Jan 05, 2022 99   @ Richmond L 72-80 23%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +0.3 +1.0 -0.7
  Jan 08, 2022 190   Duquesne L 74-78 66%     7 - 7 0 - 2 -7.8 -4.1 -3.5
  Jan 11, 2022 53   @ Davidson L 67-77 15%     7 - 8 0 - 3 +1.7 +0.4 +0.6
  Jan 15, 2022 89   Rhode Island L 68-81 37%     7 - 9 0 - 4 -9.1 -0.3 -9.0
  Jan 20, 2022 71   Saint Louis L 75-80 35%    
  Jan 23, 2022 71   @ Saint Louis L 72-82 17%    
  Jan 26, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 30, 2022 123   George Mason W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 89   @ Rhode Island L 70-78 20%    
  Feb 09, 2022 271   George Washington W 81-72 82%    
  Feb 12, 2022 157   Saint Joseph's W 82-79 62%    
  Feb 16, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 70-79 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 226   La Salle W 80-74 73%    
  Feb 23, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 68-77 18%    
  Feb 26, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 28, 2022 215   @ Fordham W 74-73 50%    
  Mar 02, 2022 215   Fordham W 76-71 71%    
  Mar 05, 2022 123   @ George Mason L 74-79 31%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.1 0.9 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 1.0 6.0 4.8 0.6 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.5 5.0 6.8 1.2 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.1 2.8 7.9 2.9 0.1 13.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 6.9 4.1 0.3 12.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 4.8 5.3 0.8 0.0 11.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 1.2 0.0 9.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.6 0.9 0.0 6.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.4 11.9 16.7 18.9 17.6 12.6 7.6 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 24.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 5.6% 5.6% 12.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.3% 7.5% 7.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
10-8 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
9-9 7.6% 2.3% 2.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5
8-10 12.6% 1.1% 1.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.5
7-11 17.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 17.5
6-12 18.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 18.8
5-13 16.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.7
4-14 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-15 6.4% 6.4
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%