Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#75
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#82
Pace70.0#142
Improvement+0.4#164

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#259
First Shot-0.6#199
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#327
Layup/Dunks+4.7#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#286
Freethrows-0.5#227
Improvement+3.3#22

Defense
Total Defense+10.4#3
First Shot+12.3#2
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#318
Layups/Dunks+3.7#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#4
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#6
Freethrows-1.2#277
Improvement-2.9#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 22.7% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.1% 10.3% 3.6%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.4
.500 or above 96.7% 97.9% 91.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 92.6% 76.3%
Conference Champion 11.5% 13.0% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.1% 4.6% 2.2%
First Round18.9% 20.3% 12.3%
Second Round6.6% 7.2% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 46 - 8
Quad 38 - 413 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 205   St. Peter's W 57-54 87%     1 - 0 -1.5 -13.9 +12.3
  Nov 13, 2021 127   Wagner L 44-58 76%     1 - 1 -14.0 -21.8 +5.7
  Nov 17, 2021 85   @ Vanderbilt W 48-37 43%     2 - 1 +20.2 -15.9 +36.8
  Nov 20, 2021 100   Chattanooga L 54-56 67%     2 - 2 +0.8 -10.1 +10.6
  Nov 24, 2021 61   Syracuse W 67-55 46%     3 - 2 +20.4 -7.2 +27.5
  Nov 25, 2021 5   Baylor L 61-69 14%     3 - 3 +10.9 -3.7 +14.6
  Nov 26, 2021 18   Connecticut L 63-70 OT 27%     3 - 4 +6.8 -7.5 +14.8
  Dec 04, 2021 225   Campbell W 65-61 88%     4 - 4 -1.5 -9.6 +8.2
  Dec 08, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. W 66-52 78%     5 - 4 +13.3 -5.0 +18.8
  Dec 11, 2021 184   @ Old Dominion W 75-66 71%     6 - 4 +10.6 +3.5 +7.2
  Dec 15, 2021 151   Florida Atlantic W 66-46 81%     7 - 4 +18.2 -12.4 +29.7
  Jan 05, 2022 72   @ Dayton W 53-52 40%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +11.0 -5.3 +16.4
  Jan 08, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 85-66 78%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +18.4 +11.7 +6.4
  Jan 11, 2022 271   George Washington W 84-57 92%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +18.4 +5.8 +11.8
  Jan 14, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 53-73 41%     10 - 5 3 - 1 -10.3 -12.7 +1.1
  Jan 18, 2022 53   Davidson L 61-63 53%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +4.7 -4.2 +8.6
  Jan 22, 2022 157   Saint Joseph's W 72-62 83%    
  Jan 26, 2022 53   @ Davidson L 63-67 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 99   @ Richmond L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 02, 2022 72   Dayton W 61-59 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 190   Duquesne W 69-58 86%    
  Feb 08, 2022 89   Rhode Island W 63-60 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 123   @ George Mason W 65-63 55%    
  Feb 15, 2022 215   @ Fordham W 64-57 74%    
  Feb 18, 2022 99   Richmond W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 23, 2022 123   George Mason W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 154   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 01, 2022 80   St. Bonaventure W 64-61 62%    
  Mar 05, 2022 71   @ Saint Louis L 63-66 38%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.6 2.4 0.5 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.5 7.2 2.5 0.3 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.3 8.9 2.8 0.2 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.9 8.8 3.3 0.1 16.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 7.3 4.0 0.3 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 5.2 3.9 0.4 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 6.4 11.4 16.3 19.6 18.6 13.4 7.4 2.6 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 89.8% 2.4    1.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 62.9% 4.6    2.0 2.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 24.5% 3.3    0.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.1
12-6 3.6% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 5.0 4.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 94.2% 35.0% 59.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.0%
15-3 2.6% 80.4% 26.7% 53.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 73.2%
14-4 7.4% 58.8% 26.2% 32.6% 10.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.0 44.2%
13-5 13.4% 37.4% 20.7% 16.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.4 0.1 8.4 21.0%
12-6 18.6% 22.6% 16.4% 6.2% 11.4 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.1 14.4 7.4%
11-7 19.6% 13.5% 11.8% 1.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 16.9 1.9%
10-8 16.3% 8.2% 7.8% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 15.0 0.5%
9-9 11.4% 5.7% 5.6% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.1%
8-10 6.4% 5.3% 5.3% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.0
7-11 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 13.2% 7.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 6.6 7.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 78.9 9.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.2 3.6 25.0 31.0 25.0 11.9 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 7.1 9.1 12.1 12.1 24.2 24.2 9.1 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 87.3% 8.1 4.8 22.2 33.3 12.7 14.3