Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#190
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#216
Pace67.3#221
Improvement+1.9#86

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#188
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#44
Layup/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#244
Freethrows-0.9#258
Improvement+0.7#134

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#199
First Shot+1.0#147
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#316
Layups/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#102
Freethrows+2.9#21
Improvement+1.2#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 5.5% 11.6% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 15.5% 3.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 6.5% 19.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 62 - 8
Quad 34 - 76 - 15
Quad 46 - 311 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 291   Rider W 73-61 80%     1 - 0 +1.8 +2.9 -0.1
  Nov 13, 2021 132   Hofstra L 63-73 46%     1 - 1 -10.3 -8.9 -2.0
  Nov 15, 2021 147   Weber St. L 59-63 51%     1 - 2 -5.5 -16.6 +11.1
  Nov 19, 2021 217   Northeastern L 55-71 55%     1 - 3 -18.5 -16.1 -3.1
  Nov 20, 2021 69   Colorado L 76-84 OT 19%     1 - 4 -0.2 +3.4 -3.1
  Nov 22, 2021 117   Bradley W 78-70 32%     2 - 4 +11.5 +6.1 +5.2
  Nov 28, 2021 330   American W 88-79 87%     3 - 4 -4.7 +6.1 -11.0
  Dec 01, 2021 182   Bowling Green L 70-78 58%     3 - 5 -11.3 -7.8 -3.4
  Dec 04, 2021 200   @ Marshall L 71-72 42%     3 - 6 -0.1 -3.0 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2021 94   @ DePaul L 67-87 18%     3 - 7 -11.5 -0.8 -11.2
  Dec 11, 2021 230   New Hampshire W 64-62 68%     4 - 7 -4.0 -5.8 +2.0
  Dec 19, 2021 110   UC Irvine W 76-54 30%     5 - 7 +26.3 +19.4 +10.0
  Jan 08, 2022 154   @ Massachusetts W 78-74 34%     6 - 7 1 - 0 +7.0 -1.9 +8.7
  Jan 12, 2022 215   @ Fordham L 71-72 45%     6 - 8 1 - 1 -0.9 +1.0 -2.0
  Jan 15, 2022 72   Dayton L 52-72 27%     6 - 9 1 - 2 -15.0 -9.9 -8.0
  Jan 21, 2022 80   St. Bonaventure L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 26, 2022 157   @ Saint Joseph's L 71-75 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 71   Saint Louis L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 01, 2022 99   Richmond L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-69 14%    
  Feb 09, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 60-71 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 215   Fordham W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 16, 2022 271   George Washington W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-73 15%    
  Feb 23, 2022 53   Davidson L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 89   @ Rhode Island L 62-72 16%    
  Mar 02, 2022 271   @ George Washington W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 226   La Salle W 71-67 67%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.5 0.3 9.5 8th
9th 0.4 4.9 6.6 1.2 13.2 9th
10th 0.1 3.4 8.5 2.8 0.1 14.9 10th
11th 0.0 2.1 8.7 5.1 0.5 0.0 16.3 11th
12th 0.8 6.6 6.6 0.8 0.0 14.7 12th
13th 0.3 3.7 5.6 1.2 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.4 2.2 3.3 1.3 0.0 7.2 14th
Total 0.4 2.6 7.8 15.6 20.4 20.2 16.1 9.7 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 7.0% 7.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.5% 8.4% 8.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-9 4.9% 0.6% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 4.8
8-10 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6
7-11 16.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 16.0
6-12 20.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 20.1
5-13 20.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.3
4-14 15.6% 15.6
3-15 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.8
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%