Richmond
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#99
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#96
Pace69.9#143
Improvement+0.6#155

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#67
First Shot+6.1#30
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#308
Layup/Dunks+4.2#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#45
Freethrows-0.5#226
Improvement-0.8#230

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#124
First Shot+1.8#119
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#189
Layups/Dunks+0.2#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
Freethrows+2.7#23
Improvement+1.4#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.4% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.2% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.4
.500 or above 93.2% 96.5% 85.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 64.2% 35.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 2.5%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round7.0% 7.9% 4.9%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Away) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 75 - 9
Quad 38 - 312 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 327   NC Central W 70-60 95%     1 - 0 -3.5 -7.2 +3.7
  Nov 12, 2021 73   Utah St. L 74-85 43%     1 - 1 -3.5 +9.9 -14.1
  Nov 16, 2021 210   Georgia St. W 94-78 84%     2 - 1 +11.2 +12.8 -2.5
  Nov 20, 2021 106   @ Drake L 70-73 45%     2 - 2 +4.0 -0.1 +4.0
  Nov 22, 2021 132   Hofstra W 81-68 72%     3 - 2 +12.7 +11.4 +2.3
  Nov 25, 2021 70   Maryland L 80-86 42%     3 - 3 +1.7 +4.3 -2.0
  Nov 27, 2021 48   Mississippi St. L 71-82 OT 34%     3 - 4 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3
  Dec 01, 2021 115   @ Wofford W 73-64 48%     4 - 4 +15.3 +10.2 +6.1
  Dec 05, 2021 101   @ Northern Iowa W 60-52 43%     5 - 4 +15.5 -7.6 +23.6
  Dec 11, 2021 88   Toledo W 72-69 57%     6 - 4 +7.0 -0.7 +7.6
  Dec 17, 2021 97   North Carolina St. W 83-74 50%     7 - 4 +14.8 +9.9 +4.8
  Dec 19, 2021 184   Old Dominion W 67-61 81%     8 - 4 +2.6 -2.1 +5.1
  Dec 22, 2021 331   Bucknell W 81-50 95%     9 - 4 +17.3 +3.3 +15.5
  Dec 30, 2021 157   Saint Joseph's L 56-83 77%     9 - 5 0 - 1 -29.1 -21.1 -6.2
  Jan 02, 2022 71   @ Saint Louis L 69-76 33%     9 - 6 0 - 2 +3.2 -1.6 +5.1
  Jan 05, 2022 154   Massachusetts W 80-72 77%     10 - 6 1 - 2 +6.0 -0.1 +6.0
  Jan 14, 2022 53   Davidson L 84-87 46%     10 - 7 1 - 3 +3.7 +13.4 -9.8
  Jan 18, 2022 215   @ Fordham W 83-70 71%     11 - 7 2 - 3 +13.1 +12.2 +0.6
  Jan 22, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 25, 2022 89   @ Rhode Island L 67-70 36%    
  Jan 29, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 01, 2022 190   @ Duquesne W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 04, 2022 80   St. Bonaventure W 70-69 56%    
  Feb 09, 2022 123   @ George Mason W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 226   La Salle W 77-66 86%    
  Feb 18, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 22, 2022 271   @ George Washington W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 25, 2022 71   Saint Louis W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 01, 2022 72   Dayton W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 04, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-72 34%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.4 0.2 6.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.6 4.9 0.8 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 7.5 2.3 0.1 13.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 8.6 4.9 0.3 16.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 8.5 7.1 0.8 0.0 18.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.7 6.2 1.1 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 4.3 1.3 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.6 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.4 13.7 18.6 20.3 17.3 11.0 5.2 1.7 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 54.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 70.5% 22.9% 47.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.7%
13-5 1.7% 36.8% 18.0% 18.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1 22.9%
12-6 5.2% 24.0% 18.6% 5.3% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 4.0 6.6%
11-7 11.0% 14.1% 12.9% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.5 1.4%
10-8 17.3% 8.3% 8.1% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 15.9 0.3%
9-9 20.3% 5.8% 5.8% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 19.1 0.1%
8-10 18.6% 4.0% 4.0% 12.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 17.8
7-11 13.7% 2.8% 2.8% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.3
6-12 7.4% 1.0% 1.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
5-13 3.3% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.4% 6.6% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 92.6 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.8 4.2 41.7 20.8 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 72.7% 10.9 9.1 50.0 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 56.0% 10.7 2.0 2.0 14.0 32.0 6.0