George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#123
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#177
Pace67.0#233
Improvement-2.1#268

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#118
First Shot+2.4#104
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#223
Layup/Dunks-1.5#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#30
Freethrows-0.1#186
Improvement-0.5#212

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot-0.6#190
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#57
Layups/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#298
Freethrows-0.2#208
Improvement-1.5#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 53.9% 69.8% 41.3%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 26.4% 8.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 4.4% 14.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.2% 3.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Home) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 36 - 78 - 12
Quad 46 - 214 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 224   Stony Brook W 74-52 78%     1 - 0 +16.6 -2.3 +19.0
  Nov 12, 2021 211   Penn W 87-66 77%     2 - 0 +16.2 +4.8 +10.2
  Nov 14, 2021 326   Morgan St. W 90-53 93%     3 - 0 +23.6 +7.7 +14.4
  Nov 17, 2021 70   @ Maryland W 71-66 24%     4 - 0 +15.2 +11.4 +4.4
  Nov 19, 2021 180   @ James Madison L 64-67 54%     4 - 1 -1.2 -11.7 +10.6
  Nov 22, 2021 130   Washington L 74-77 52%     4 - 2 -0.6 +7.2 -7.9
  Nov 23, 2021 116   Nevada L 69-88 47%     4 - 3 -15.4 -5.4 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2021 98   South Dakota St. L 76-80 39%     4 - 4 +1.8 +4.2 -2.7
  Dec 04, 2021 184   Old Dominion L 50-60 73%     4 - 5 -13.4 -19.9 +5.6
  Dec 07, 2021 148   Navy W 71-65 67%     5 - 5 +4.3 +5.8 -0.9
  Dec 18, 2021 201   @ Georgia W 80-67 58%     6 - 5 +13.9 +4.2 +9.5
  Dec 21, 2021 330   American W 67-44 93%     7 - 5 +9.3 +0.8 +13.3
  Jan 01, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 67-76 6%     7 - 6 +11.4 +3.5 +7.7
  Jan 17, 2022 271   @ George Washington L 76-77 73%     7 - 7 0 - 1 -4.6 +5.4 -10.1
  Jan 22, 2022 72   Dayton L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 26, 2022 80   St. Bonaventure L 67-69 46%    
  Jan 30, 2022 154   @ Massachusetts L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 02, 2022 71   Saint Louis L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 09, 2022 99   Richmond L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth L 63-65 45%    
  Feb 16, 2022 157   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 20, 2022 215   @ Fordham W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-67 25%    
  Feb 27, 2022 271   George Washington W 74-63 87%    
  Mar 02, 2022 53   @ Davidson L 65-74 20%    
  Mar 05, 2022 154   Massachusetts W 79-74 69%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 5.9 3.3 0.2 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 6.2 5.4 0.6 13.2 8th
9th 0.4 4.6 7.3 1.5 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.9 7.2 2.7 0.1 13.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 6.2 4.1 0.3 0.0 12.0 11th
12th 0.7 4.7 4.6 0.7 0.0 10.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.2 10.4 14.9 17.5 18.3 14.6 9.4 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 51.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 30.8% 23.1% 7.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0%
12-6 0.4% 13.3% 12.3% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1%
11-7 1.7% 11.7% 11.4% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.4%
10-8 5.0% 6.7% 6.7% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.7
9-9 9.4% 5.0% 5.0% 12.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.9
8-10 14.6% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.2
7-11 18.3% 1.8% 1.8% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 18.0
6-12 17.5% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 17.3
5-13 14.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.8
4-14 10.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.3
3-15 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-16 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 97.8 0.0%