Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#71
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#76
Pace68.8#175
Improvement+0.7#148

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#74
First Shot+3.9#64
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#185
Layup/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#241
Freethrows+3.6#5
Improvement-1.5#273

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#76
First Shot+6.0#25
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#332
Layups/Dunks+3.1#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#29
Freethrows-0.5#230
Improvement+2.2#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 24.0% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.3% 9.6% 3.3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.6 11.5
.500 or above 99.2% 99.7% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 95.7% 83.7%
Conference Champion 13.9% 18.0% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.3% 4.0% 2.0%
First Round18.9% 22.1% 12.8%
Second Round6.4% 7.9% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 38 - 213 - 10
Quad 48 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 329   Central Arkansas W 96-61 97%     1 - 0 +21.4 +4.4 +13.6
  Nov 12, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 86-44 98%     2 - 0 +24.0 +8.2 +15.7
  Nov 16, 2021 41   @ Memphis L 74-90 30%     2 - 1 -2.9 -4.2 +3.8
  Nov 20, 2021 196   Mercer W 75-58 86%     3 - 1 +13.0 +3.0 +11.1
  Nov 23, 2021 202   Illinois St. W 82-76 81%     4 - 1 +4.3 +2.6 +1.5
  Nov 24, 2021 162   Stephen F. Austin W 79-68 76%     5 - 1 +11.2 +5.2 +5.6
  Nov 30, 2021 54   @ Boise St. W 86-82 OT 35%     6 - 1 +15.6 +15.1 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2021 50   UAB L 72-77 53%     6 - 2 +2.0 +6.2 -4.5
  Dec 07, 2021 62   Belmont L 59-64 57%     6 - 3 +0.8 -9.3 +9.9
  Dec 11, 2021 138   Boston College W 79-68 79%     7 - 3 +10.0 +6.5 +3.7
  Dec 18, 2021 8   Auburn L 70-74 24%     7 - 4 +11.3 +4.8 +6.5
  Jan 02, 2022 99   Richmond W 76-69 67%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +10.2 +0.3 +9.6
  Jan 08, 2022 90   Iona W 68-67 64%     9 - 4 +4.9 -0.3 +5.2
  Jan 11, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 63-68 41%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +5.0 +2.8 +1.7
  Jan 15, 2022 215   Fordham W 63-45 88%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +13.1 -4.5 +18.7
  Jan 20, 2022 154   @ Massachusetts W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 23, 2022 154   Massachusetts W 82-72 83%    
  Jan 26, 2022 271   George Washington W 78-62 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 190   @ Duquesne W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 02, 2022 123   @ George Mason W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 72   Dayton W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 08, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 11, 2022 80   St. Bonaventure W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 15, 2022 226   La Salle W 76-63 90%    
  Feb 19, 2022 53   @ Davidson L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 22, 2022 157   Saint Joseph's W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 25, 2022 99   @ Richmond L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 02, 2022 89   @ Rhode Island L 67-68 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 66-63 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.7 2.9 0.7 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.7 8.4 3.0 0.3 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.5 9.2 3.0 0.2 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.8 8.5 3.5 0.2 16.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 6.8 3.8 0.3 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.5 3.5 0.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.2 5.3 9.6 15.2 19.1 19.3 15.5 8.9 3.2 0.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
15-3 91.2% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 63.6% 5.7    2.5 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 25.2% 3.9    0.7 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.5% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 6.2 5.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 92.6% 33.9% 58.6% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.7%
15-3 3.2% 73.7% 31.5% 42.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 61.5%
14-4 8.9% 50.5% 25.3% 25.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.4 33.7%
13-5 15.5% 31.0% 20.9% 10.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 1.6 0.1 10.7 12.9%
12-6 19.3% 19.5% 16.8% 2.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.3 15.6 3.2%
11-7 19.1% 12.5% 11.6% 0.9% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 16.8 1.0%
10-8 15.2% 8.0% 7.7% 0.3% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 14.0 0.3%
9-9 9.6% 5.9% 5.9% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.0 0.1%
8-10 5.3% 3.7% 3.7% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1
7-11 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-12 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 14.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.5% 14.2% 6.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.6 6.1 7.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 79.5 7.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.0 13.2 18.4 33.3 26.3 6.1 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 88.3% 6.9 16.9 19.5 26.0 10.4 13.0 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 92.0% 8.3 10.2 17.0 26.1 17.0 18.2 3.4