St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#80
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#58
Pace63.3#316
Improvement-2.6#288

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#52
First Shot+3.9#66
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#120
Layup/Dunks+2.4#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#248
Freethrows+2.3#33
Improvement-0.6#220

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#98
First Shot+1.7#120
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#116
Layups/Dunks+3.2#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#342
Freethrows+2.9#18
Improvement-1.9#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 26.6% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.8% 15.7% 6.3%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.0
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 88.0% 66.1%
Conference Champion 5.0% 6.5% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.6% 6.5% 3.4%
First Round20.1% 23.1% 13.1%
Second Round6.9% 8.2% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 25 - 46 - 7
Quad 36 - 312 - 9
Quad 47 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 246   Siena W 75-47 90%     1 - 0 +20.9 +10.7 +13.9
  Nov 14, 2021 286   Canisius W 69-60 93%     2 - 0 -0.7 -10.0 +9.0
  Nov 18, 2021 54   Boise St. W 67-61 43%     3 - 0 +15.1 +11.2 +4.8
  Nov 19, 2021 68   Clemson W 68-65 47%     4 - 0 +11.0 +7.5 +4.0
  Nov 21, 2021 37   Marquette W 70-54 37%     5 - 0 +26.7 -0.1 +26.0
  Nov 27, 2021 101   Northern Iowa L 80-90 67%     5 - 1 -7.5 +3.6 -10.8
  Dec 01, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 93-81 94%     6 - 1 +1.3 +12.3 -11.6
  Dec 04, 2021 103   Buffalo W 68-65 69%     7 - 1 +5.0 -5.3 +10.3
  Dec 08, 2021 259   Loyola Maryland W 84-71 91%     8 - 1 +5.4 +18.2 -11.4
  Dec 11, 2021 18   Connecticut L 64-74 26%     8 - 2 +3.8 -0.4 +4.0
  Dec 17, 2021 32   Virginia Tech L 49-86 33%     8 - 3 -25.4 -16.2 -10.6
  Jan 11, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 80-76 OT 77%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +3.4 +4.4 -1.2
  Jan 14, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 73-53 59%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +24.9 +14.0 +12.2
  Jan 18, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 50-68 39%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -8.0 -6.9 -4.8
  Jan 21, 2022 190   @ Duquesne W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 26, 2022 123   @ George Mason W 69-67 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 157   Saint Joseph's W 75-66 82%    
  Feb 01, 2022 53   Davidson W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 04, 2022 99   @ Richmond L 69-70 44%    
  Feb 08, 2022 215   Fordham W 71-59 88%    
  Feb 11, 2022 71   @ Saint Louis L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 16, 2022 154   Massachusetts W 79-70 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 190   Duquesne W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 22, 2022 89   Rhode Island W 67-64 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 157   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 01, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-64 38%    
  Mar 04, 2022 99   Richmond W 72-68 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 0.6 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.5 1.2 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.8 7.0 1.9 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.3 4.2 8.2 3.3 0.2 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 9.2 4.2 0.3 16.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 7.2 5.2 0.5 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.5 10.0 15.1 20.0 18.5 15.1 8.7 3.3 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 92.8% 0.6    0.4 0.2
14-4 59.3% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.0% 2.0    0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 98.0% 23.4% 74.7% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4%
14-4 3.3% 84.9% 28.6% 56.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 78.8%
13-5 8.7% 64.1% 24.0% 40.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.1 52.7%
12-6 15.1% 39.1% 18.4% 20.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 1.5 0.1 9.2 25.3%
11-7 18.5% 22.6% 13.8% 8.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.7 0.1 14.3 10.2%
10-8 20.0% 12.2% 9.2% 3.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 17.6 3.3%
9-9 15.1% 6.6% 5.9% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 14.2 0.7%
8-10 10.0% 4.3% 4.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.6
7-11 5.5% 2.2% 2.2% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
6-12 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.1% 11.8% 11.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.3 4.1 7.6 6.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 76.9 12.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 1.4 38.0 35.2 15.5 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 95.5% 6.3 4.5 4.5 21.2 25.8 21.2 9.1 4.5 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 7.8 2.9 15.2 27.6 26.7 16.2 8.6 2.9