Fordham
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#215
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#187
Pace68.9#174
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#310
First Shot-5.7#323
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#126
Layup/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#225
Freethrows+0.8#117
Improvement-0.2#189

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#96
First Shot-0.9#204
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#7
Layups/Dunks-2.5#272
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#19
Freethrows+0.0#192
Improvement+0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 25.1% 44.7% 19.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.4% 38.0% 14.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 2.4% 8.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 35 - 65 - 14
Quad 49 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 337   Columbia W 77-67 86%     1 - 0 -4.2 -1.8 -2.1
  Nov 12, 2021 267   @ Manhattan L 60-66 53%     1 - 1 -9.2 -19.6 +10.9
  Nov 15, 2021 288   St. Thomas W 84-78 76%     2 - 1 -4.0 +0.4 -4.4
  Nov 19, 2021 342   Maryland Eastern Shore L 73-75 2OT 87%     2 - 2 -16.9 -14.6 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2021 152   Akron W 63-43 38%     3 - 2 +20.6 -2.5 +25.9
  Nov 23, 2021 146   Delaware L 71-81 37%     3 - 3 -9.0 -5.1 -3.7
  Nov 24, 2021 167   Rice W 84-74 41%     4 - 3 +9.9 +4.7 +4.9
  Nov 28, 2021 343   @ Central Connecticut St. W 89-83 2OT 78%     5 - 3 -4.4 -5.6 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2021 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 68-46 85%     6 - 3 +8.4 -13.1 +21.1
  Dec 05, 2021 92   @ St. John's L 69-83 15%     6 - 4 -5.2 -6.7 +2.8
  Dec 09, 2021 235   LIU Brooklyn W 73-57 65%     7 - 4 +9.5 +1.8 +8.6
  Dec 12, 2021 58   Miami (FL) L 66-72 15%     7 - 5 +2.6 -6.5 +9.1
  Dec 30, 2021 226   @ La Salle W 69-61 43%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +7.4 -2.0 +9.5
  Jan 12, 2022 190   Duquesne W 72-71 55%     9 - 5 2 - 0 -2.8 -4.0 +1.1
  Jan 15, 2022 71   @ Saint Louis L 45-63 12%     9 - 6 2 - 1 -7.8 -20.0 +11.1
  Jan 18, 2022 99   Richmond L 70-83 29%     9 - 7 2 - 2 -9.8 -4.1 -5.4
  Jan 22, 2022 53   Davidson L 62-71 21%    
  Jan 25, 2022 72   @ Dayton L 57-69 11%    
  Jan 30, 2022 271   @ George Washington W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 02, 2022 89   Rhode Island L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 157   @ Saint Joseph's L 67-72 29%    
  Feb 08, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 59-71 12%    
  Feb 12, 2022 190   @ Duquesne L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 15, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth L 57-64 26%    
  Feb 20, 2022 123   George Mason L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 23, 2022 226   La Salle W 67-64 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 53   @ Davidson L 60-74 9%    
  Feb 28, 2022 154   Massachusetts L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 02, 2022 154   @ Massachusetts L 71-76 29%    
  Mar 05, 2022 271   George Washington W 69-63 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.9 1.9 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.1 4.0 0.4 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 1.0 6.6 6.1 0.9 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.3 5.1 8.1 1.8 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.0 2.5 8.3 3.1 0.1 14.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 5.8 4.3 0.4 0.0 11.3 11th
12th 0.1 3.0 4.9 0.7 0.0 8.7 12th
13th 0.0 1.1 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.5 13th
14th 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.0 3.0 14th
Total 0.5 2.8 8.0 14.6 19.4 19.8 15.5 10.2 5.7 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 35.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.8% 3.5% 3.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
10-8 5.7% 0.7% 0.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
9-9 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
8-10 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 15.5
7-11 19.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 19.8
6-12 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 19.4
5-13 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
4-14 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%