Dayton
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#72
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#92
Pace62.5#322
Improvement+7.5#2

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#91
First Shot+2.4#105
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#121
Layup/Dunks+2.9#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement+3.0#32

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#69
First Shot+2.8#83
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#59
Layups/Dunks+3.1#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows+1.9#62
Improvement+4.5#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 27.8% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.6% 13.2% 5.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.5% 96.1%
Conference Champion 28.0% 36.8% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 4.5% 2.5%
First Round21.3% 25.3% 16.3%
Second Round7.1% 9.0% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.1% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 2
Quad 26 - 48 - 6
Quad 35 - 213 - 8
Quad 48 - 322 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 257   Illinois-Chicago W 64-54 91%     1 - 0 +2.5 -2.8 +6.9
  Nov 13, 2021 262   Umass Lowell L 58-59 92%     1 - 1 -8.8 -7.1 -1.9
  Nov 17, 2021 280   Lipscomb L 59-78 93%     1 - 2 -28.4 -17.8 -12.0
  Nov 20, 2021 314   Austin Peay L 81-87 95%     1 - 3 -17.2 -1.1 -15.8
  Nov 25, 2021 58   Miami (FL) W 76-60 46%     2 - 3 +24.6 +5.9 +19.2
  Nov 26, 2021 7   Kansas W 74-73 17%     3 - 3 +18.9 +9.2 +9.7
  Nov 28, 2021 62   Belmont W 63-61 47%     4 - 3 +10.3 +0.8 +9.7
  Dec 01, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 93-54 97%     5 - 3 +24.3 +16.6 +8.6
  Dec 04, 2021 295   Northern Illinois W 79-41 94%     6 - 3 +27.6 +9.3 +20.5
  Dec 08, 2021 63   @ SMU L 69-77 38%     6 - 4 +2.7 +0.4 +2.2
  Dec 12, 2021 32   Virginia Tech W 62-57 44%     7 - 4 +14.1 -1.8 +16.2
  Dec 18, 2021 109   @ Mississippi L 68-76 53%     7 - 5 -1.2 +0.1 -1.2
  Dec 21, 2021 240   Southern W 69-60 90%     8 - 5 +2.2 -2.7 +5.3
  Jan 05, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth L 52-53 60%     8 - 6 0 - 1 +3.9 -2.9 +6.6
  Jan 08, 2022 271   @ George Washington W 83-58 85%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +21.4 +9.4 +11.9
  Jan 11, 2022 71   Saint Louis W 68-63 59%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +10.2 +5.2 +5.5
  Jan 15, 2022 190   @ Duquesne W 72-52 73%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +21.2 +10.3 +13.9
  Jan 18, 2022 80   St. Bonaventure W 68-50 61%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +22.7 +10.5 +15.9
  Jan 22, 2022 123   @ George Mason W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 25, 2022 215   Fordham W 69-57 89%    
  Jan 28, 2022 89   Rhode Island W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 02, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-61 40%    
  Feb 05, 2022 71   @ Saint Louis L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 09, 2022 190   Duquesne W 71-60 86%    
  Feb 12, 2022 271   George Washington W 74-58 94%    
  Feb 14, 2022 89   @ Rhode Island L 63-64 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 157   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 23, 2022 154   Massachusetts W 77-68 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 70-62 76%    
  Mar 01, 2022 99   @ Richmond L 67-68 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 53   Davidson W 67-66 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.6 9.9 8.0 3.0 0.5 28.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.2 11.6 5.2 0.8 0.0 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.0 8.7 3.4 0.2 17.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 6.6 2.7 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.7 0.3 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.4 9.8 15.6 19.7 20.8 15.3 8.8 3.0 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 99.6% 3.0    2.8 0.2
15-3 90.6% 8.0    6.1 1.8 0.1
14-4 64.9% 9.9    4.8 4.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 26.9% 5.6    1.1 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 4.6% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.0% 28.0 15.4 9.2 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 96.4% 42.7% 53.6% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.6%
16-2 3.0% 82.2% 29.4% 52.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 74.7%
15-3 8.8% 55.9% 25.2% 30.7% 10.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.9 41.1%
14-4 15.3% 35.0% 20.8% 14.1% 10.8 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.6 1.1 0.0 9.9 17.9%
13-5 20.8% 22.6% 17.5% 5.1% 11.4 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.1 16.1 6.2%
12-6 19.7% 14.8% 13.5% 1.3% 11.7 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.2 16.8 1.5%
11-7 15.6% 9.7% 9.5% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 14.1 0.2%
10-8 9.8% 6.2% 6.2% 0.1% 12.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.2 0.1%
9-9 4.4% 4.9% 4.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
8-10 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 0.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 15.2% 8.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 7.6 6.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 76.7 9.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.8 2.6 18.8 26.5 17.1 20.5 9.4 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 7.0 10.3 20.5 30.8 35.9 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 88.5% 7.9 9.8 32.8 11.5 29.5 4.9