Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Kentucky 99.8%   2   15 - 3 5 - 1 24 - 7 14 - 4 +19.2      +11.2 3 +8.0 13 70.9 119 +15.6 21 +19.6 2
8 Auburn 100.0%   1   17 - 1 6 - 0 27 - 4 15 - 3 +17.8      +9.2 13 +8.6 10 75.0 50 +23.3 1 +26.6 1
13 LSU 99.9%   3   15 - 3 3 - 3 24 - 7 12 - 6 +16.6      +3.6 82 +13.1 1 74.0 62 +17.8 10 +14.9 4
15 Tennessee 94.7%   5   12 - 5 3 - 3 20 - 10 11 - 7 +14.6      +4.6 53 +9.9 5 70.6 124 +14.9 24 +12.3 5
16 Alabama 98.7%   4   12 - 6 3 - 3 20 - 11 11 - 7 +14.5      +9.2 12 +5.3 51 78.0 14 +13.4 32 +12.3 6
31 Arkansas 66.9%   9   13 - 5 3 - 3 20 - 11 9 - 9 +11.9      +6.2 33 +5.8 43 78.6 12 +9.0 65 +7.8 10
35 Florida 53.3%   12   11 - 6 2 - 3 19 - 12 10 - 8 +11.5      +6.3 32 +5.1 54 69.3 160 +9.1 64 +9.2 9
48 Mississippi St. 37.5%   12 - 5 3 - 2 18 - 12 9 - 8 +9.9      +7.2 26 +2.8 94 64.3 306 +8.1 73 +10.8 7
60 Texas A&M 29.3%   14 - 3 4 - 1 20 - 10 10 - 8 +8.5      +2.9 101 +5.6 45 67.3 222 +12.6 38 +15.5 3
85 Vanderbilt 6.9%   10 - 7 2 - 3 15 - 15 7 - 11 +6.7      +2.1 112 +4.6 63 67.6 210 +6.0 94 +6.3 11
109 Mississippi 0.4%   9 - 8 1 - 4 14 - 17 5 - 13 +4.3      0.0 178 +4.3 68 65.2 284 +2.7 127 +0.8 13
113 South Carolina 1.6%   9 - 7 1 - 4 14 - 15 6 - 12 +4.1      -1.3 214 +5.4 47 76.1 30 +6.8 85 +5.3 12
126 Missouri 0.1%   7 - 9 2 - 3 10 - 19 5 - 12 +2.6      +0.5 165 +2.1 107 69.6 150 +3.9 113 +9.3 8
201 Georgia 0.0%   5 - 13 0 - 5 7 - 24 2 - 16 -1.6      +1.8 124 -3.4 282 71.5 101 -5.6 265 -6.3 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kentucky 2.1 34.8 41.6 12.8 5.5 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Auburn 1.3 75.1 19.1 3.8 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 3.8 4.3 18.8 31.1 18.6 11.5 7.3 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 4.6 3.0 11.9 21.1 19.3 15.0 11.0 7.9 5.4 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Alabama 5.0 2.0 8.1 15.8 19.2 18.2 14.5 10.0 6.6 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 6.5 0.6 3.3 8.2 10.7 12.7 13.4 14.2 14.2 12.4 6.8 2.6 0.9 0.2
Florida 6.3 0.6 3.6 7.6 12.3 14.1 15.4 14.5 12.9 9.6 5.6 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Mississippi St. 7.2 0.2 1.2 4.4 7.4 10.2 13.3 15.9 16.2 15.0 9.0 4.7 1.7 0.6 0.0
Texas A&M 6.1 0.8 3.9 10.3 12.9 13.8 14.9 14.3 12.9 9.3 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.1
Vanderbilt 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.8 7.2 11.0 16.6 22.8 17.0 9.8 4.6 0.5
Mississippi 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.1 7.2 13.4 19.9 23.2 23.3 5.3
South Carolina 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 5.0 8.8 16.1 21.7 21.7 16.9 4.6
Missouri 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 6.9 14.1 22.9 25.2 20.7 3.2
Georgia 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.1 7.1 17.6 70.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kentucky 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.9 12.4 19.2 23.7 21.0 11.9 3.4
Auburn 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 9.4 17.4 24.3 24.4 15.0 4.5
LSU 12 - 6 0.1 0.4 1.8 6.0 12.4 20.3 24.9 21.1 10.4 2.4
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 5.5 11.2 17.8 21.6 20.3 13.4 6.0 1.2
Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.9 14.1 21.9 23.4 18.2 9.1 2.8 0.4
Arkansas 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.6 9.9 16.8 19.9 19.7 14.5 8.4 3.4 1.0 0.1
Florida 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 8.9 14.8 19.6 21.1 16.4 9.3 3.9 1.0 0.1
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.4 13.2 20.5 22.0 18.5 10.8 4.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
Texas A&M 10 - 8 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.2 14.7 20.1 20.9 17.1 10.2 4.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 7 - 11 0.2 1.6 5.9 13.3 19.9 22.2 17.5 11.1 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Mississippi 5 - 13 1.0 5.0 12.3 18.8 22.0 18.6 12.3 6.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 6 - 12 0.5 3.0 8.9 16.9 21.9 20.2 15.1 8.3 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Missouri 5 - 13 2.3 9.8 20.5 24.8 20.7 12.7 6.0 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Georgia 2 - 16 10.7 23.9 26.8 20.3 11.3 4.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 34.8% 20.2 12.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Auburn 75.1% 58.3 14.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
LSU 4.3% 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 3.0% 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama 2.0% 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi St. 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Mississippi
South Carolina
Missouri
Georgia


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 99.8% 32.2% 67.6% 2   27.7 27.3 21.1 13.1 5.8 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.7%
Auburn 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1   45.7 31.0 14.9 5.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
LSU 99.9% 16.2% 83.7% 3   14.6 22.7 23.2 18.6 10.9 5.9 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Tennessee 94.7% 8.9% 85.8% 5   2.4 5.8 11.8 16.6 16.8 14.4 10.0 6.1 3.9 2.8 2.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 94.2%
Alabama 98.7% 8.2% 90.5% 4   3.2 7.4 14.4 20.0 19.3 13.7 8.6 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 98.6%
Arkansas 66.9% 3.5% 63.3% 9   0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.6 9.8 12.2 10.5 9.3 8.1 2.9 0.1 0.0 33.1 65.7%
Florida 53.3% 3.2% 50.1% 12   0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.4 8.9 8.6 9.4 8.9 3.7 0.2 46.7 51.8%
Mississippi St. 37.5% 1.5% 35.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.6 6.2 7.1 7.2 7.0 3.0 0.2 0.0 62.5 36.5%
Texas A&M 29.3% 1.1% 28.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.7 5.0 7.1 4.1 0.3 70.7 28.5%
Vanderbilt 6.9% 0.3% 6.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 93.1 6.6%
Mississippi 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.3%
South Carolina 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 98.4 1.5%
Missouri 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kentucky 99.8% 0.1% 99.8% 93.4% 69.3% 44.0% 26.1% 14.6% 7.9%
Auburn 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.3% 67.4% 40.8% 22.2% 11.3% 5.4%
LSU 99.9% 0.1% 99.9% 87.5% 57.0% 29.9% 14.5% 6.8% 3.2%
Tennessee 94.7% 2.9% 93.5% 69.0% 36.0% 15.9% 7.0% 2.9% 1.2%
Alabama 98.7% 1.4% 98.1% 73.3% 38.7% 17.0% 7.3% 2.8% 1.1%
Arkansas 66.9% 6.6% 64.0% 36.1% 12.5% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Florida 53.3% 8.1% 49.6% 27.1% 9.2% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Mississippi St. 37.5% 6.8% 34.1% 16.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Texas A&M 29.3% 8.1% 24.9% 11.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 6.9% 2.2% 5.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 1.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.9 0.1 5.2 28.0 42.1 21.5 3.0 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 6.7 0.2 7.6 33.4 40.3 16.7 1.7 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.6 5.2 21.4 37.5 26.8 7.6 0.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.3% 3.0 0.7 7.3 24.5 36.3 24.0 6.6 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 88.9% 1.6 11.1 36.6 36.9 13.4 1.9 0.1
Final Four 63.1% 0.8 36.9 46.7 15.0 1.3 0.0
Final Game 36.8% 0.4 63.2 34.1 2.8
Champion 19.1% 0.2 80.9 19.1