Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#85
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#94
Pace67.6#210
Improvement-0.3#193

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#112
First Shot+1.3#139
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#118
Layup/Dunks-0.5#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#128
Freethrows+1.8#56
Improvement+0.3#161

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#63
First Shot+4.8#42
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#183
Layups/Dunks+4.0#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#221
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement-0.6#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 14.4% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.6% 14.0% 4.4%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.2
.500 or above 45.5% 68.0% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 19.5% 36.8% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.5% 2.3%
First Four2.2% 3.9% 1.7%
First Round5.8% 12.4% 3.8%
Second Round2.3% 5.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 23.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 23 - 36 - 13
Quad 34 - 310 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 91-72 97%     1 - 0 +4.3 +3.3 -0.9
  Nov 14, 2021 150   Texas St. W 79-60 79%     2 - 0 +17.3 +9.2 +9.2
  Nov 17, 2021 75   Virginia Commonwealth L 37-48 57%     2 - 1 -6.1 -24.4 +17.6
  Nov 20, 2021 183   Winthrop W 77-63 83%     3 - 1 +10.6 -3.0 +13.1
  Nov 24, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh W 68-52 60%     4 - 1 +20.1 +6.7 +15.4
  Nov 29, 2021 357   Mississippi Valley W 75-36 99%     5 - 1 +15.0 -10.2 +25.3
  Dec 04, 2021 63   @ SMU L 72-84 35%     5 - 2 -1.3 +6.3 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2021 122   Temple L 68-72 OT 73%     5 - 3 -3.6 -8.2 +4.8
  Dec 10, 2021 28   Loyola Chicago L 58-69 38%     5 - 4 -1.2 +0.2 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2021 314   Austin Peay W 77-51 94%     6 - 4 +14.8 +7.2 +10.4
  Dec 22, 2021 161   @ Hawaii W 68-54 65%     7 - 4 +16.7 -1.7 +19.0
  Dec 23, 2021 29   BYU W 69-67 30%     8 - 4 +14.2 +2.2 +12.0
  Jan 04, 2022 31   @ Arkansas W 75-74 23%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +15.4 +5.8 +9.6
  Jan 08, 2022 113   South Carolina L 70-72 69%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -0.4 -2.2 +1.9
  Jan 11, 2022 3   Kentucky L 66-78 17%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +4.7 +6.0 -2.3
  Jan 15, 2022 201   @ Georgia W 73-66 71%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +7.9 +0.3 +7.8
  Jan 18, 2022 15   Tennessee L 60-68 30%     10 - 7 2 - 3 +4.1 -4.8 +9.0
  Jan 22, 2022 35   @ Florida L 65-72 23%    
  Jan 26, 2022 113   @ South Carolina W 69-68 48%    
  Jan 29, 2022 201   Georgia W 77-66 86%    
  Feb 02, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 63-78 8%    
  Feb 05, 2022 13   LSU L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 08, 2022 126   Missouri W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 15   @ Tennessee L 61-71 16%    
  Feb 16, 2022 8   @ Auburn L 64-78 9%    
  Feb 19, 2022 60   Texas A&M W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 22, 2022 16   Alabama L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 48   @ Mississippi St. L 65-71 28%    
  Mar 01, 2022 35   Florida L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 109   @ Mississippi L 64-65 48%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 2.1 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.4 0.8 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 6.3 3.1 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 7.8 6.8 0.8 0.0 16.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 8.4 10.7 2.2 0.1 22.8 10th
11th 0.8 5.9 8.3 2.0 0.0 17.0 11th
12th 0.2 2.7 5.0 1.9 0.1 9.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.9 13.3 19.9 22.2 17.5 11.1 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 8.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.6% 91.3% 2.2% 89.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.1%
11-7 2.2% 73.4% 1.3% 72.1% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 73.0%
10-8 5.6% 44.4% 1.0% 43.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 43.8%
9-9 11.1% 16.1% 0.6% 15.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 9.3 15.6%
8-10 17.5% 2.3% 0.4% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 17.1 1.8%
7-11 22.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.1 0.1%
6-12 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 19.9
5-13 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 13.3
4-14 5.9% 5.9
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.9% 0.3% 6.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 93.1 6.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%