Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#48
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#73
Pace64.3#306
Improvement-1.6#249

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#26
First Shot+4.1#62
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#16
Layup/Dunks+2.2#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows+2.7#19
Improvement+0.8#129

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot+2.6#88
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#159
Layups/Dunks+8.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#350
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#308
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement-2.4#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.8% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.5% 41.2% 23.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.5% 40.2% 22.8%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 9.6
.500 or above 94.6% 96.9% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 64.0% 32.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four6.8% 7.2% 5.2%
First Round34.1% 37.7% 21.1%
Second Round16.4% 18.3% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 5.2% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.7% 0.6%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 78.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 8
Quad 23 - 36 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 298   North Alabama W 75-49 96%     1 - 0 +15.5 +2.2 +13.8
  Nov 13, 2021 178   Montana W 86-49 88%     2 - 0 +33.9 +15.1 +20.3
  Nov 17, 2021 199   Detroit Mercy W 77-64 90%     3 - 0 +8.9 +11.2 -0.5
  Nov 21, 2021 145   Morehead St. W 66-46 86%     4 - 0 +18.6 +2.0 +19.5
  Nov 25, 2021 86   Louisville L 58-72 63%     4 - 1 -7.4 -11.6 +4.7
  Nov 27, 2021 99   Richmond W 82-71 OT 66%     5 - 1 +16.7 +9.0 +7.5
  Dec 02, 2021 335   Lamar W 75-60 98%     6 - 1 +1.0 +3.3 -0.4
  Dec 05, 2021 91   Minnesota L 76-81 72%     6 - 2 -1.2 +9.4 -10.9
  Dec 11, 2021 47   Colorado St. L 63-66 50%     6 - 3 +7.0 -2.6 +9.4
  Dec 14, 2021 210   Georgia St. W 79-50 91%     7 - 3 +24.2 +8.0 +18.1
  Dec 17, 2021 102   Furman W 69-66 76%     8 - 3 +5.4 +3.4 +2.4
  Dec 21, 2021 183   Winthrop W 84-63 84%     9 - 3 +20.1 +14.5 +7.2
  Dec 29, 2021 31   Arkansas W 81-68 52%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +22.4 +12.2 +10.1
  Jan 08, 2022 109   @ Mississippi L 72-82 62%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -3.2 +5.5 -8.7
  Jan 12, 2022 201   Georgia W 88-72 90%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +11.9 +8.7 +2.8
  Jan 15, 2022 16   Alabama W 78-76 42%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +14.0 +7.4 +6.5
  Jan 19, 2022 35   @ Florida L 72-80 35%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +6.0 +10.7 -5.3
  Jan 22, 2022 109   Mississippi W 70-62 79%    
  Jan 25, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 66-78 12%    
  Jan 29, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 60-68 22%    
  Feb 01, 2022 113   South Carolina W 74-66 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 31   @ Arkansas L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 09, 2022 15   Tennessee L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 13   @ LSU L 63-72 18%    
  Feb 16, 2022 16   @ Alabama L 72-79 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 126   Missouri W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 23, 2022 113   @ South Carolina W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 26, 2022 85   Vanderbilt W 71-65 72%    
  Mar 02, 2022 8   Auburn L 70-75 33%    
  Mar 05, 2022 60   @ Texas A&M L 67-68 44%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 4.4 1.4 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.5 3.7 0.2 10.2 5th
6th 0.3 4.7 7.2 1.2 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.8 9.3 3.6 0.1 15.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 8.4 5.9 0.5 16.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 5.6 7.6 1.2 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 5.0 1.3 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.1 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.4 13.2 20.5 22.0 18.5 10.8 4.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 42.9% 0.0    0.0
14-4 31.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.3% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.4% 95.7% 5.7% 90.0% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.5%
11-7 10.8% 85.9% 3.2% 82.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 85.4%
10-8 18.5% 62.6% 1.6% 61.0% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.6 3.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.9 62.0%
9-9 22.0% 35.9% 1.3% 34.6% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.7 1.3 0.0 14.1 35.1%
8-10 20.5% 12.4% 0.7% 11.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 17.9 11.8%
7-11 13.2% 2.8% 0.5% 2.3% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.8 2.3%
6-12 6.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.3%
5-13 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.5% 1.5% 35.9% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.6 6.2 7.1 7.2 7.0 3.0 0.2 0.0 62.5 36.5%