Arkansas
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#31
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#65
Pace78.6#12
Improvement+1.6#97

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#33
First Shot+3.9#65
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#40
Layup/Dunks+4.2#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#325
Freethrows+3.5#7
Improvement-0.1#176

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#43
First Shot+2.9#80
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#17
Layups/Dunks+4.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#276
Freethrows+0.1#186
Improvement+1.7#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 4.0% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 13.9% 16.8% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.9% 72.7% 51.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.7% 71.6% 50.3%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 8.9
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 74.9% 45.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four6.6% 6.1% 7.8%
First Round64.0% 70.0% 47.9%
Second Round36.1% 40.1% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 14.2% 8.1%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.8% 2.9%
Final Four1.8% 2.1% 0.9%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 29 - 10
Quad 35 - 214 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 196   Mercer W 74-61 92%     1 - 0 +9.0 -1.4 +10.7
  Nov 13, 2021 223   Gardner-Webb W 86-69 94%     2 - 0 +11.6 +12.2 -0.6
  Nov 17, 2021 101   Northern Iowa W 93-80 81%     3 - 0 +15.5 +12.6 +1.9
  Nov 22, 2021 55   Kansas St. W 72-64 62%     4 - 0 +16.9 +3.5 +13.1
  Nov 23, 2021 74   Cincinnati W 73-67 67%     5 - 0 +13.4 +1.7 +11.4
  Nov 28, 2021 211   Penn W 76-60 93%     6 - 0 +11.2 -5.0 +15.4
  Dec 01, 2021 329   Central Arkansas W 97-60 98%     7 - 0 +23.4 -0.9 +18.3
  Dec 04, 2021 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 93-78 97%     8 - 0 +4.7 +11.4 -7.2
  Dec 07, 2021 195   Charlotte W 86-66 92%     9 - 0 +16.0 +9.3 +6.6
  Dec 11, 2021 30   Oklahoma L 66-88 50%     9 - 1 -10.0 -3.6 -5.3
  Dec 18, 2021 132   Hofstra L 81-89 87%     9 - 2 -8.3 -4.5 -2.8
  Dec 21, 2021 232   Elon W 81-55 95%     10 - 2 +19.7 +7.8 +13.1
  Dec 29, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 68-81 48%     10 - 3 0 - 1 -0.6 -1.2 +0.8
  Jan 04, 2022 85   Vanderbilt L 74-75 77%     10 - 4 0 - 2 +3.2 +1.2 +2.0
  Jan 08, 2022 60   @ Texas A&M L 81-86 54%     10 - 5 0 - 3 +6.0 +7.7 -1.2
  Jan 12, 2022 126   Missouri W 87-43 86%     11 - 5 1 - 3 +44.1 +12.1 +30.5
  Jan 15, 2022 13   @ LSU W 65-58 25%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +26.1 +7.6 +18.6
  Jan 18, 2022 113   South Carolina W 75-59 83%     13 - 5 3 - 3 +17.6 +3.8 +13.3
  Jan 22, 2022 60   Texas A&M W 76-70 73%    
  Jan 26, 2022 109   @ Mississippi W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 43   West Virginia W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 02, 2022 201   @ Georgia W 85-74 84%    
  Feb 05, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 08, 2022 8   Auburn L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 16   @ Alabama L 80-85 31%    
  Feb 15, 2022 126   @ Missouri W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 15   Tennessee L 73-74 52%    
  Feb 22, 2022 35   @ Florida L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 3   Kentucky L 75-80 34%    
  Mar 02, 2022 13   LSU L 72-74 44%    
  Mar 05, 2022 15   @ Tennessee L 71-76 31%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 4.4 1.5 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 6.2 2.6 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.6 5.0 0.3 12.7 5th
6th 0.3 4.4 7.5 1.1 13.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 8.2 3.3 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 7.4 5.4 0.4 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 5.0 5.6 1.0 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.6 9.9 16.8 19.9 19.7 14.5 8.4 3.4 1.0 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 29.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.0% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.4% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.4% 99.7% 8.3% 91.4% 6.2 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 14.5% 97.7% 6.4% 91.3% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.1 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.6%
10-8 19.7% 90.8% 3.4% 87.4% 8.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 5.0 4.5 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 90.4%
9-9 19.9% 72.0% 1.8% 70.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.2 4.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 5.6 71.5%
8-10 16.8% 38.5% 1.5% 37.1% 10.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 10.3 37.6%
7-11 9.9% 10.9% 0.9% 10.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 8.8 10.0%
6-12 4.6% 2.7% 0.5% 2.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5 2.2%
5-13 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 66.9% 3.5% 63.3% 8.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.6 9.8 12.2 10.5 9.3 8.1 2.9 0.1 0.0 33.1 65.7%