Florida
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#35
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#64
Pace69.3#160
Improvement-2.4#281

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#32
First Shot+3.2#82
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#17
Layup/Dunks+1.9#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#104
Freethrows+1.7#60
Improvement+1.7#75

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#54
First Shot+4.7#48
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#144
Layups/Dunks-4.1#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#11
Freethrows+2.5#29
Improvement-4.1#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 7.3% 8.7% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.3% 57.7% 38.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.8% 56.1% 37.5%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.4
.500 or above 97.5% 98.8% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 77.9% 49.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four8.1% 8.2% 7.8%
First Round49.6% 54.1% 34.6%
Second Round27.1% 29.9% 17.7%
Sweet Sixteen9.2% 10.3% 5.6%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.1% 1.9%
Final Four1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Home) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 8
Quad 26 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 232   Elon W 74-61 94%     1 - 0 +6.7 +0.3 +6.9
  Nov 14, 2021 42   Florida St. W 71-55 64%     2 - 0 +23.8 +4.5 +19.7
  Nov 18, 2021 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-45 96%     3 - 0 +27.7 +5.1 +22.9
  Nov 22, 2021 107   California W 80-60 75%     4 - 0 +24.4 +12.2 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2021 22   Ohio St. W 71-68 44%     5 - 0 +16.1 +3.6 +12.5
  Nov 28, 2021 189   Troy W 84-45 92%     6 - 0 +35.2 +9.3 +24.8
  Dec 01, 2021 30   @ Oklahoma L 67-74 38%     6 - 1 +7.5 +0.6 +7.1
  Dec 06, 2021 204   Texas Southern L 54-69 92%     6 - 2 -19.4 -16.3 -4.0
  Dec 08, 2021 313   North Florida W 85-55 97%     7 - 2 +18.8 -2.0 +17.8
  Dec 12, 2021 70   Maryland L 68-70 64%     7 - 3 +5.7 +5.8 -0.3
  Dec 18, 2021 191   South Florida W 66-55 88%     8 - 3 +9.7 +2.1 +8.4
  Dec 22, 2021 224   Stony Brook W 87-62 93%     9 - 3 +19.6 +11.0 +8.8
  Jan 05, 2022 16   Alabama L 70-83 48%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -1.0 -0.4 -0.3
  Jan 08, 2022 8   @ Auburn L 73-85 20%     9 - 5 0 - 2 +8.3 +7.2 +1.6
  Jan 12, 2022 13   LSU L 58-64 40%     9 - 6 0 - 3 +8.1 +0.7 +7.0
  Jan 15, 2022 113   @ South Carolina W 71-63 68%     10 - 6 1 - 3 +14.6 +11.3 +4.1
  Jan 19, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 80-72 65%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +15.4 +14.4 +1.6
  Jan 22, 2022 85   Vanderbilt W 72-65 77%    
  Jan 24, 2022 109   @ Mississippi W 69-64 65%    
  Jan 26, 2022 15   @ Tennessee L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 02, 2022 126   @ Missouri W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 109   Mississippi W 72-62 83%    
  Feb 09, 2022 201   Georgia W 83-67 93%    
  Feb 12, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 68-78 16%    
  Feb 15, 2022 60   @ Texas A&M W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 19, 2022 8   Auburn L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 22, 2022 31   Arkansas W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 201   @ Georgia W 80-69 82%    
  Mar 01, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt W 70-68 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 3   Kentucky L 71-76 33%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.2 1.6 0.1 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 6.7 3.5 0.2 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.5 6.2 0.5 14.1 5th
6th 0.3 4.7 8.7 1.7 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 8.3 3.6 0.1 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.5 5.0 0.3 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.3 3.8 4.8 0.8 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 8.9 14.8 19.6 21.1 16.4 9.3 3.9 1.0 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 84.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 31.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.0% 99.4% 14.6% 84.8% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-5 3.9% 99.6% 9.3% 90.4% 5.9 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 9.3% 95.9% 7.0% 88.9% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 95.6%
11-7 16.4% 87.0% 5.0% 82.1% 8.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.6 3.5 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 86.4%
10-8 21.1% 69.5% 2.9% 66.6% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 2.8 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.0 6.4 68.6%
9-9 19.6% 41.5% 1.7% 39.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.1 1.5 0.1 11.5 40.5%
8-10 14.8% 14.0% 1.2% 12.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 12.7 13.0%
7-11 8.9% 3.1% 1.0% 2.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6 2.2%
6-12 3.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.3%
5-13 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.3% 3.2% 50.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.4 8.9 8.6 9.4 8.9 3.7 0.2 46.7 51.8%