Kentucky
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#3
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#21
Pace70.9#119
Improvement+2.8#63

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#3
First Shot+8.8#7
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#33
Layup/Dunks+3.9#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#280
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement+1.4#85

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#13
First Shot+6.0#27
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#36
Layups/Dunks+3.8#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#82
Freethrows+2.4#35
Improvement+1.4#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.1% 10.9% 4.0%
#1 Seed 27.7% 39.2% 18.7%
Top 2 Seed 55.0% 69.3% 43.8%
Top 4 Seed 89.2% 95.6% 84.1%
Top 6 Seed 97.8% 99.3% 96.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 100.0% 99.6%
Average Seed 2.6 2.1 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 34.8% 58.3% 16.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Second Round93.4% 95.7% 91.6%
Sweet Sixteen69.3% 72.6% 66.7%
Elite Eight44.0% 48.2% 40.7%
Final Four26.1% 29.3% 23.5%
Championship Game14.6% 16.6% 12.9%
National Champion7.9% 9.0% 7.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 44.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 7
Quad 25 - 114 - 7
Quad 34 - 018 - 7
Quad 48 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 10   Duke L 71-79 58%     0 - 1 +9.0 +2.0 +7.4
  Nov 12, 2021 306   Robert Morris W 100-60 99%     1 - 1 +29.2 +17.6 +10.6
  Nov 16, 2021 282   Mount St. Mary's W 80-55 99%     2 - 1 +15.5 +9.3 +7.6
  Nov 19, 2021 84   Ohio W 77-59 91%     3 - 1 +22.2 +13.1 +10.7
  Nov 22, 2021 255   Albany W 86-61 98%     4 - 1 +17.5 +9.3 +7.1
  Nov 26, 2021 313   North Florida W 86-52 99%     5 - 1 +22.8 -1.9 +20.9
  Nov 29, 2021 333   Central Michigan W 85-57 99%     6 - 1 +14.1 +4.4 +10.4
  Dec 07, 2021 240   Southern W 76-64 98%     7 - 1 +5.2 +4.6 +1.2
  Dec 11, 2021 65   @ Notre Dame L 62-66 79%     7 - 2 +6.7 +0.7 +5.4
  Dec 18, 2021 34   North Carolina W 98-69 77%     8 - 2 +40.5 +25.8 +13.8
  Dec 22, 2021 112   Western Kentucky W 95-60 94%     9 - 2 +36.6 +16.7 +17.8
  Dec 29, 2021 126   Missouri W 83-56 95%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +27.1 +4.5 +20.4
  Dec 31, 2021 275   High Point W 92-48 99%     11 - 2 +35.0 +12.8 +20.8
  Jan 04, 2022 13   @ LSU L 60-65 50%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +14.1 +0.4 +13.8
  Jan 08, 2022 201   Georgia W 92-77 97%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +10.9 +12.4 -1.9
  Jan 11, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt W 78-66 83%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +21.2 +18.2 +4.1
  Jan 15, 2022 15   Tennessee W 107-79 75%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +40.1 +38.4 +0.5
  Jan 19, 2022 60   @ Texas A&M W 64-58 78%     15 - 3 5 - 1 +17.0 -3.1 +20.0
  Jan 22, 2022 8   @ Auburn L 76-77 44%    
  Jan 25, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 78-66 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 76-77 44%    
  Feb 02, 2022 85   Vanderbilt W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 16   @ Alabama W 80-78 57%    
  Feb 08, 2022 113   @ South Carolina W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 35   Florida W 78-68 84%    
  Feb 15, 2022 15   @ Tennessee W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 16   Alabama W 83-76 76%    
  Feb 23, 2022 13   LSU W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 31   @ Arkansas W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 01, 2022 109   Mississippi W 77-60 95%    
  Mar 05, 2022 35   @ Florida W 76-71 67%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 7.2 12.5 10.3 3.4 34.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 12.7 15.9 8.5 1.6 41.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 6.3 4.7 0.6 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 2.8 0.4 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.3 2.9 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.9 12.4 19.2 23.7 21.0 11.9 3.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.1 0.3
16-2 86.8% 10.3    7.7 2.6
15-3 59.5% 12.5    6.8 5.5 0.2
14-4 30.2% 7.2    2.5 3.6 1.0 0.1
13-5 7.6% 1.5    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.8% 34.8 20.2 12.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.4% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 1.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.9% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.4 7.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 21.0% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.7 9.6 8.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 23.7% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 2.2 5.6 9.2 6.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 19.2% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 3.0 1.5 4.4 7.2 4.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.4% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 3.9 0.2 1.1 3.6 4.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.9% 99.5% 16.6% 82.8% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
10-8 1.9% 97.9% 11.2% 86.7% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
9-9 0.6% 91.2% 1.7% 89.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.0%
8-10 0.1% 66.7% 9.5% 57.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.2%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 32.2% 67.6% 2.6 27.7 27.3 21.1 13.1 5.8 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 93.5 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 74.7 25.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 88.4 11.6