Auburn
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.8#8
Expected Predictive Rating+23.3#1
Pace75.0#50
Improvement+0.8#139

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#13
First Shot+7.5#15
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#63
Layup/Dunks+4.1#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#74
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement+1.2#100

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#10
First Shot+8.8#6
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#185
Layups/Dunks+5.0#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#72
Freethrows-0.2#211
Improvement-0.4#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.6% 16.1% 8.3%
#1 Seed 45.7% 54.9% 33.9%
Top 2 Seed 76.6% 85.4% 65.5%
Top 4 Seed 97.4% 99.2% 95.1%
Top 6 Seed 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.6 2.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 75.1% 90.2% 55.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round94.3% 95.6% 92.7%
Sweet Sixteen67.4% 69.8% 64.5%
Elite Eight40.8% 43.5% 37.4%
Final Four22.2% 24.5% 19.1%
Championship Game11.3% 12.6% 9.6%
National Champion5.4% 6.1% 4.5%

Next Game: Kentucky (Home) - 55.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 4
Quad 28 - 117 - 5
Quad 38 - 024 - 5
Quad 44 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 145   Morehead St. W 77-54 95%     1 - 0 +21.6 +4.5 +17.4
  Nov 12, 2021 258   Louisiana Monroe W 93-65 98%     2 - 0 +20.5 +7.8 +10.7
  Nov 19, 2021 191   @ South Florida W 58-52 93%     3 - 0 +7.2 -4.7 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2021 18   Connecticut L 109-115 2OT 65%     3 - 1 +7.8 +13.2 -3.8
  Nov 25, 2021 28   Loyola Chicago W 62-53 70%     4 - 1 +21.3 +2.1 +20.2
  Nov 26, 2021 61   Syracuse W 89-68 81%     5 - 1 +29.4 +15.9 +13.6
  Dec 01, 2021 81   Central Florida W 85-68 89%     6 - 1 +21.6 +5.3 +14.5
  Dec 04, 2021 134   Yale W 86-64 95%     7 - 1 +21.5 +8.5 +11.9
  Dec 11, 2021 140   Nebraska W 99-68 93%     8 - 1 +32.5 +19.8 +10.6
  Dec 14, 2021 298   North Alabama W 70-44 99%     9 - 1 +15.5 -4.8 +20.1
  Dec 18, 2021 71   @ Saint Louis W 74-70 76%     10 - 1 +14.2 +6.5 +7.8
  Dec 22, 2021 51   Murray St. W 71-58 85%     11 - 1 +19.8 +1.5 +18.4
  Dec 29, 2021 13   LSU W 70-55 64%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +29.1 +4.4 +23.7
  Jan 04, 2022 113   @ South Carolina W 81-66 85%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +21.6 +10.5 +10.3
  Jan 08, 2022 35   Florida W 85-73 80%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +21.0 +12.7 +7.7
  Jan 11, 2022 16   @ Alabama W 81-77 53%     15 - 1 4 - 0 +21.0 +4.1 +16.4
  Jan 15, 2022 109   @ Mississippi W 80-71 85%     16 - 1 5 - 0 +15.8 +19.1 -2.6
  Jan 19, 2022 201   Georgia W 83-60 97%     17 - 1 6 - 0 +18.9 +7.5 +11.9
  Jan 22, 2022 3   Kentucky W 77-76 56%    
  Jan 25, 2022 126   @ Missouri W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 01, 2022 16   Alabama W 83-77 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 201   @ Georgia W 86-69 94%    
  Feb 08, 2022 31   @ Arkansas W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 60   Texas A&M W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 16, 2022 85   Vanderbilt W 78-64 91%    
  Feb 19, 2022 35   @ Florida W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 23, 2022 109   Mississippi W 77-61 94%    
  Feb 26, 2022 15   @ Tennessee W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 02, 2022 48   @ Mississippi St. W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 113   South Carolina W 82-66 93%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 9.7 20.2 23.8 15.0 4.5 75.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.8 7.5 4.2 0.6 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.2 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 9.4 17.4 24.3 24.4 15.0 4.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.5    4.5
17-1 100.0% 15.0    14.7 0.3
16-2 97.6% 23.8    21.2 2.6
15-3 82.9% 20.2    13.8 6.1 0.2
14-4 55.5% 9.7    3.9 4.7 1.1 0.1
13-5 19.7% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 75.1% 75.1 58.3 14.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.5% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.1 4.0 0.6 100.0%
17-1 15.0% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.2 11.4 3.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 24.4% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.4 15.3 7.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 24.3% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.7 10.5 9.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.3 3.8 6.7 5.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.4% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.0 0.7 2.1 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.4% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 3.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.2% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.3% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.9 45.7 31.0 14.9 5.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.2 84.1 15.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7