LSU
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#13
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#10
Pace74.0#62
Improvement-5.4#355

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#82
First Shot+1.8#121
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#58
Layup/Dunks+5.8#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#263
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement-4.3#350

Defense
Total Defense+13.1#1
First Shot+13.1#1
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#169
Layups/Dunks+9.1#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#149
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement-1.1#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.7% 4.6% 1.2%
#1 Seed 14.6% 22.5% 7.9%
Top 2 Seed 37.2% 51.4% 25.2%
Top 4 Seed 79.0% 89.1% 70.4%
Top 6 Seed 95.8% 98.7% 93.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 3.3 2.7 3.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 99.3% 96.2%
Conference Champion 4.3% 7.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round87.5% 91.3% 84.2%
Sweet Sixteen57.0% 61.9% 52.8%
Elite Eight29.9% 34.1% 26.4%
Final Four14.5% 16.7% 12.6%
Championship Game6.8% 8.0% 5.8%
National Champion3.2% 3.7% 2.8%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 18 - 6
Quad 27 - 115 - 7
Quad 36 - 020 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 258   Louisiana Monroe W 101-39 98%     1 - 0 +54.5 +16.2 +34.5
  Nov 12, 2021 150   Texas St. W 84-59 95%     2 - 0 +23.3 +14.4 +10.3
  Nov 15, 2021 104   Liberty W 74-58 91%     3 - 0 +18.0 +0.6 +17.2
  Nov 18, 2021 323   McNeese St. W 85-46 99%     4 - 0 +26.2 -2.3 +24.9
  Nov 22, 2021 62   Belmont W 83-53 84%     5 - 0 +35.8 +8.1 +26.4
  Nov 26, 2021 56   Penn St. W 68-63 OT 77%     6 - 0 +13.8 +2.1 +11.9
  Nov 27, 2021 49   Wake Forest W 75-61 74%     7 - 0 +23.9 +3.0 +20.1
  Dec 01, 2021 84   Ohio W 66-51 87%     8 - 0 +19.2 -5.4 +24.5
  Dec 11, 2021 125   Georgia Tech W 69-53 90%     9 - 0 +18.8 -5.8 +23.3
  Dec 14, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 89-49 99%     10 - 0 +24.3 +1.3 +20.8
  Dec 18, 2021 82   Louisiana Tech W 66-57 82%     11 - 0 +16.1 -4.0 +20.1
  Dec 22, 2021 280   Lipscomb W 95-60 98%     12 - 0 +25.6 +4.1 +17.9
  Dec 29, 2021 8   @ Auburn L 55-70 36%     12 - 1 0 - 1 +5.3 -11.6 +17.8
  Jan 04, 2022 3   Kentucky W 65-60 50%     13 - 1 1 - 1 +21.7 -2.2 +23.9
  Jan 08, 2022 15   Tennessee W 79-67 67%     14 - 1 2 - 1 +24.1 +13.0 +10.8
  Jan 12, 2022 35   @ Florida W 64-58 60%     15 - 1 3 - 1 +20.0 +1.7 +18.7
  Jan 15, 2022 31   Arkansas L 58-65 75%     15 - 2 3 - 2 +2.4 -9.3 +11.6
  Jan 19, 2022 16   @ Alabama L 67-70 49%     15 - 3 3 - 3 +14.0 -3.0 +17.2
  Jan 22, 2022 15   @ Tennessee L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 26, 2022 60   Texas A&M W 71-60 85%    
  Jan 29, 2022 57   @ TCU W 67-62 69%    
  Feb 01, 2022 109   Mississippi W 71-56 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 08, 2022 60   @ Texas A&M W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 72-63 82%    
  Feb 16, 2022 201   Georgia W 82-61 98%    
  Feb 19, 2022 113   @ South Carolina W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 23, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 126   Missouri W 76-59 94%    
  Mar 02, 2022 31   @ Arkansas W 74-72 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 16   Alabama W 77-72 68%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.4 4.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 8.6 6.5 1.1 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.0 14.1 11.0 1.8 0.0 31.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 9.0 7.3 0.7 18.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.3 6.0 0.9 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 4.6 1.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 1.6 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.8 6.0 12.4 20.3 24.9 21.1 10.4 2.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 55.8% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.1
14-4 20.9% 2.2    0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 3.6% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.4% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 1.5 5.6 4.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-5 21.1% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.2 5.1 8.9 5.5 1.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 24.9% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.9 1.8 6.8 9.3 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 20.3% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.8 0.3 2.0 5.9 7.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.4% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 4.7 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 3.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 6.0% 99.7% 5.3% 94.4% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
8-10 1.8% 98.8% 4.8% 94.0% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
7-11 0.4% 93.9% 7.5% 86.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.4%
6-12 0.1% 57.4% 57.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.4%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 16.2% 83.7% 3.3 14.6 22.7 23.2 18.6 10.9 5.9 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 71.6 28.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.4 64.8 31.9 2.2 1.1