Alabama
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#16
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#32
Pace78.0#14
Improvement-4.1#339

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#12
First Shot+5.9#32
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#10
Layup/Dunks+5.7#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#96
Freethrows+1.5#80
Improvement-1.1#249

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#51
First Shot+6.0#26
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#244
Layups/Dunks+4.3#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#104
Freethrows-0.5#233
Improvement-3.0#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.4% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 10.6% 11.3% 2.9%
Top 4 Seed 45.1% 47.1% 22.0%
Top 6 Seed 78.1% 80.1% 56.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 98.9% 95.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.6% 98.8% 95.5%
Average Seed 5.0 4.9 6.3
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 91.7% 69.6%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 4.7%
First Round98.1% 98.5% 93.3%
Second Round73.3% 74.4% 62.0%
Sweet Sixteen38.7% 39.6% 28.6%
Elite Eight17.0% 17.5% 11.4%
Final Four7.3% 7.5% 4.2%
Championship Game2.8% 2.9% 1.7%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.7%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 38 - 8
Quad 25 - 313 - 11
Quad 37 - 120 - 12
Quad 41 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 82   Louisiana Tech W 93-64 82%     1 - 0 +33.6 +19.7 +13.1
  Nov 12, 2021 98   South Dakota St. W 104-88 85%     2 - 0 +19.3 +13.1 +4.0
  Nov 16, 2021 149   South Alabama W 73-68 93%     3 - 0 +3.3 -10.2 +12.8
  Nov 19, 2021 105   Oakland W 86-59 88%     4 - 0 +29.0 +12.4 +16.1
  Nov 25, 2021 90   Iona L 68-72 78%     4 - 1 +2.4 -6.1 +8.8
  Nov 26, 2021 106   Drake W 80-71 83%     5 - 1 +13.5 +4.2 +8.8
  Nov 28, 2021 58   Miami (FL) W 96-64 72%     6 - 1 +40.6 +22.6 +17.6
  Dec 04, 2021 1   Gonzaga W 91-82 22%     7 - 1 +31.6 +14.4 +16.1
  Dec 11, 2021 9   Houston W 83-82 48%     8 - 1 +16.0 +16.3 -0.3
  Dec 14, 2021 41   @ Memphis L 78-92 56%     8 - 2 -0.9 +5.3 -5.1
  Dec 18, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. W 65-59 92%     9 - 2 +5.3 -2.6 +8.4
  Dec 21, 2021 53   Davidson L 78-79 70%     9 - 3 +8.2 +9.6 -1.5
  Dec 29, 2021 15   Tennessee W 73-68 59%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +17.1 +5.2 +11.6
  Jan 05, 2022 35   @ Florida W 83-70 52%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +27.0 +14.7 +12.0
  Jan 08, 2022 126   @ Missouri L 86-92 81%     11 - 4 2 - 1 -0.9 +16.3 -17.2
  Jan 11, 2022 8   Auburn L 77-81 47%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +11.3 +1.4 +10.4
  Jan 15, 2022 48   @ Mississippi St. L 76-78 58%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +10.4 +5.4 +5.0
  Jan 19, 2022 13   LSU W 70-67 51%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +17.1 +5.1 +11.9
  Jan 22, 2022 126   Missouri W 83-69 92%    
  Jan 25, 2022 201   @ Georgia W 88-74 89%    
  Jan 29, 2022 5   Baylor L 77-79 45%    
  Feb 01, 2022 8   @ Auburn L 77-83 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 3   Kentucky L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 109   @ Mississippi W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 31   Arkansas W 85-80 69%    
  Feb 16, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 79-72 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 76-83 24%    
  Feb 22, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 113   South Carolina W 83-70 89%    
  Mar 02, 2022 60   Texas A&M W 79-70 80%    
  Mar 05, 2022 13   @ LSU L 72-77 32%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 2.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 4.5 1.6 0.1 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 8.9 3.7 0.2 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 10.1 6.4 0.4 19.2 4th
5th 0.9 8.0 8.4 0.9 0.0 18.2 5th
6th 0.2 4.1 8.3 1.8 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.8 2.9 0.1 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.1 2.9 0.3 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.4 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.9 14.1 21.9 23.4 18.2 9.1 2.8 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 82.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.7% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.8% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.1% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.6 1.2 3.0 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.2% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.6 0.4 2.4 5.9 6.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 23.4% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.4 0.1 0.7 3.7 7.8 7.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 21.9% 99.9% 5.4% 94.5% 5.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 6.9 6.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 99.9%
9-9 14.1% 99.9% 3.3% 96.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.4 3.8 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 6.9% 97.8% 2.0% 95.9% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 97.8%
7-11 2.5% 75.3% 2.0% 73.3% 10.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 74.8%
6-12 0.6% 34.4% 34.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 34.4%
5-13 0.1% 5.7% 5.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 5.7%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.7% 8.2% 90.5% 5.0 3.2 7.4 14.4 20.0 19.3 13.7 8.6 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 98.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 55.0 45.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 73.7 26.3