Tennessee
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#15
Expected Predictive Rating+14.9#24
Pace70.6#124
Improvement-3.8#330

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#53
First Shot+2.4#106
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#39
Layup/Dunks+5.1#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#151
Freethrows-1.6#296
Improvement-1.8#284

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#5
First Shot+6.1#24
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#3
Layups/Dunks+5.0#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#216
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement-2.0#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.4% 3.9% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 8.3% 12.5% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 36.7% 48.2% 23.1%
Top 6 Seed 67.8% 79.2% 54.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.7% 98.1% 90.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.2% 97.9% 90.0%
Average Seed 5.4 4.8 6.2
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 96.4% 85.5%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 1.1% 5.0%
First Round93.5% 97.7% 88.7%
Second Round69.0% 75.7% 61.1%
Sweet Sixteen36.0% 41.8% 29.2%
Elite Eight15.9% 18.9% 12.3%
Final Four7.0% 8.4% 5.3%
Championship Game2.9% 3.5% 2.1%
National Champion1.2% 1.4% 0.9%

Next Game: LSU (Home) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 9
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 35 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 90-62 99%     1 - 0 +15.0 +9.5 +5.2
  Nov 14, 2021 174   East Tennessee St. W 94-62 94%     2 - 0 +29.0 +10.9 +15.7
  Nov 20, 2021 6   Villanova L 53-71 37%     2 - 1 -0.1 -10.1 +9.6
  Nov 21, 2021 34   North Carolina W 89-72 62%     3 - 1 +28.5 +15.1 +12.5
  Nov 26, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 98%     4 - 1 +0.9 +3.5 -2.6
  Nov 30, 2021 299   Presbyterian W 86-44 98%     5 - 1 +31.5 +18.4 +17.5
  Dec 04, 2021 69   @ Colorado W 69-54 66%     6 - 1 +25.3 +2.4 +23.0
  Dec 07, 2021 14   Texas Tech L 52-57 OT 47%     6 - 2 +10.4 -15.1 +26.0
  Dec 11, 2021 175   UNC Greensboro W 76-36 94%     7 - 2 +37.0 +16.4 +26.6
  Dec 14, 2021 311   South Carolina Upstate W 96-52 98%     8 - 2 +32.9 +13.5 +18.6
  Dec 22, 2021 2   Arizona W 77-73 41%     9 - 2 +20.9 +7.4 +13.2
  Dec 29, 2021 16   @ Alabama L 68-73 41%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +12.0 -1.7 +14.0
  Jan 05, 2022 109   Mississippi W 66-60 OT 88%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +7.8 -8.8 +16.1
  Jan 08, 2022 13   @ LSU L 67-79 33%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +7.1 +6.9 +0.5
  Jan 11, 2022 113   South Carolina W 66-46 88%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +21.6 -2.6 +24.2
  Jan 15, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 79-107 25%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -6.3 +12.1 -17.2
  Jan 18, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt W 68-60 70%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +17.2 +0.3 +16.9
  Jan 22, 2022 13   LSU W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 26, 2022 35   Florida W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 17   @ Texas L 62-64 40%    
  Feb 01, 2022 60   Texas A&M W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 113   @ South Carolina W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 09, 2022 48   @ Mississippi St. W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 85   Vanderbilt W 71-61 84%    
  Feb 15, 2022 3   Kentucky L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 31   @ Arkansas W 74-73 48%    
  Feb 22, 2022 126   @ Missouri W 72-63 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 8   Auburn L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 01, 2022 201   @ Georgia W 79-65 89%    
  Mar 05, 2022 31   Arkansas W 76-71 69%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 5.9 3.5 0.4 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 10.6 6.4 0.9 21.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 9.8 6.8 0.5 19.3 4th
5th 0.7 6.5 7.1 0.8 15.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 6.4 1.5 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.9 4.5 2.5 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 2.6 0.2 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.4 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 5.5 11.2 17.8 21.6 20.3 13.4 6.0 1.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 69.3% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
14-4 27.0% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.0% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.4 1.2 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.4% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 3.4 0.6 2.1 4.7 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 20.3% 99.9% 11.5% 88.5% 4.4 0.1 0.9 3.7 6.6 5.3 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 21.6% 99.6% 7.7% 91.9% 5.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 6.2 5.4 3.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-8 17.8% 98.1% 5.4% 92.7% 6.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 4.2 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 98.0%
9-9 11.2% 91.6% 3.2% 88.4% 8.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.9 91.3%
8-10 5.5% 69.2% 2.1% 67.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.7 68.5%
7-11 2.3% 33.9% 2.5% 31.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 32.2%
6-12 0.6% 12.3% 1.0% 11.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 11.4%
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.7% 8.9% 85.8% 5.4 2.4 5.8 11.8 16.6 16.8 14.4 10.0 6.1 3.9 2.8 2.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 94.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 88.1 7.5 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 70.1 28.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 33.3 43.8 19.8 3.1