Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 New Mexico St. 37.5%   12   12 - 2 4 - 0 21 - 6 13 - 4 +6.2      +4.2 68 +2.0 113 66.8 236 +12.4 40 +11.0 2
96 Grand Canyon 33.3%   12 - 2 4 - 0 21 - 6 13 - 4 +5.8      +3.2 92 +2.7 95 63.3 315 +9.2 60 +11.0 2
128 Utah Valley 8.9%   9 - 6 2 - 3 17 - 11 10 - 8 +2.5      +1.1 144 +1.4 132 65.1 290 +3.0 125 -5.0 9
141 Abilene Christian 7.6%   7 - 6 2 - 4 16 - 9 11 - 7 +1.4      -1.9 224 +3.3 85 72.4 79 +1.2 151 -3.2 8
160 Seattle 8.3%   11 - 4 4 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +0.2      -0.7 196 +0.9 143 72.8 73 +1.2 152 +11.4 1
162 Stephen F. Austin 6.7%   7 - 6 3 - 2 15 - 11 11 - 7 +0.2      -1.3 212 +1.4 128 71.4 106 +1.3 150 +0.3 5
171 Tarleton St. 0.0%   5 - 11 3 - 3 13 - 15 11 - 7 -0.4      -2.5 246 +2.1 109 61.6 336 -2.6 211 +1.7 6
212 Sam Houston St. 2.8%   7 - 9 5 - 1 12 - 16 10 - 8 -2.3      -2.0 228 -0.3 180 66.7 240 -2.7 215 +6.3 4
236 California Baptist 0.1%   8 - 6 1 - 3 14 - 14 7 - 11 -4.0      -1.0 206 -3.0 268 70.4 133 -4.4 246 -13.3 13
276 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1%   4 - 11 1 - 4 9 - 19 6 - 12 -6.5      -2.0 231 -4.5 308 78.0 15 -8.5 295 -11.7 12
297 Dixie St. 0.0%   4 - 10 1 - 4 8 - 19 5 - 13 -7.9      -3.5 270 -4.4 302 79.6 8 -6.2 271 -7.2 11
335 Lamar 0.0%   0 - 15 0 - 4 2 - 25 2 - 14 -11.5      -4.2 285 -7.3 343 65.3 282 -23.7 357 -25.7 14
350 Chicago St. 0.0%   6 - 13 2 - 4 7 - 24 3 - 15 -14.5      -8.8 349 -5.7 328 69.2 162 -8.0 292 -6.0 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
New Mexico St. 2.2 45.9 23.6 12.6 7.4 4.6 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 2.2 46.3 25.1 12.3 7.0 4.3 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Utah Valley 5.7 3.3 6.3 9.3 11.8 13.7 15.7 16.7 15.0 6.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 5.0 2.3 9.6 15.1 15.9 16.3 14.7 12.8 8.8 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 4.8 6.7 11.3 13.5 14.5 14.4 13.5 11.8 9.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 3.7 16.5 19.6 17.6 14.4 11.5 8.5 6.4 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 4.8 6.7 11.3 13.5 14.5 14.4 13.5 11.8 9.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 4.6 4.8 13.3 17.9 16.6 14.5 12.6 10.2 6.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 5.3 4.7 8.7 11.1 13.1 13.8 15.0 14.7 13.2 4.6 1.0 0.1
California Baptist 8.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.8 8.7 15.8 35.0 19.0 7.8 2.3 0.6
UT Rio Grande Valley 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.6 7.9 20.9 32.6 21.3 7.0 3.0
Dixie St. 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 4.3 15.1 29.1 30.6 13.3 5.3
Lamar 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.4 6.4 13.1 23.5 54.1
Chicago St. 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 10.1 26.6 47.3 13.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
New Mexico St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.1 8.3 14.6 20.2 21.2 18.0 9.0 2.5
Grand Canyon 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.5 8.2 14.4 19.6 22.3 18.4 9.5 2.4
Utah Valley 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.9 11.7 17.6 21.3 19.2 12.9 6.1 2.1 0.3
Abilene Christian 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 6.7 13.3 20.6 23.4 18.7 10.3 2.8
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.6 13.1 18.3 20.2 17.4 11.8 5.3 1.6 0.2
Seattle 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 6.9 12.6 17.9 20.3 17.5 12.0 6.2 2.1 0.5 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.6 13.1 18.3 20.2 17.4 11.8 5.3 1.6 0.2
Tarleton St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.1 11.0 17.6 21.4 21.2 13.7 6.2 1.2
Sam Houston St. 10 - 8 0.1 1.0 4.3 10.0 16.8 20.0 19.4 15.0 8.4 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 2.3 6.2 12.1 18.3 20.7 17.8 12.3 6.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 - 12 0.6 3.3 9.0 15.7 20.0 19.6 15.1 9.0 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Dixie St. 5 - 13 1.2 5.7 14.6 21.6 22.5 17.7 9.8 4.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lamar 2 - 16 9.9 22.6 25.7 20.4 11.9 6.1 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 3 - 15 25.1 35.0 24.0 10.9 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 45.9% 30.3 11.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 46.3% 30.2 12.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 3.3% 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 2.3% 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 6.7% 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Seattle 16.5% 8.5 5.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 6.7% 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 4.8% 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 4.7% 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0
Dixie St.
Lamar
Chicago St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 37.5% 33.0% 4.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.9 7.5 17.2 5.8 0.3 62.5 6.8%
Grand Canyon 33.3% 32.5% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 12.2 13.6 3.1 0.1 66.7 1.1%
Utah Valley 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.3 0.4 91.1 0.0%
Abilene Christian 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.0 0.3 92.4 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 1.3 0.1 93.3 0.0%
Seattle 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.0 0.7 91.7 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 1.3 0.1 93.3 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.3 97.2 0.0%
California Baptist 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Lamar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 37.5% 2.9% 36.0% 9.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 33.3% 0.6% 32.9% 7.2% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 7.6% 0.0% 7.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 8.3% 0.1% 8.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 2.8% 0.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.3 0.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 96.2 3.4
2nd Round 19.4% 0.2 80.6 19.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0