Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#96
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#60
Pace63.3#315
Improvement+4.9#18

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#92
First Shot+0.2#172
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#19
Layup/Dunks+1.4#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#69
Freethrows-3.2#344
Improvement+3.7#16

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#95
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#133
Layups/Dunks-0.6#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#9
Freethrows-0.8#251
Improvement+1.2#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.3% 36.9% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 46.3% 56.6% 31.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round32.9% 36.5% 27.7%
Second Round7.2% 8.5% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.3% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 3
Quad 35 - 28 - 5
Quad 414 - 123 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 74-53 95%     1 - 0 +8.2 -1.9 +10.9
  Nov 12, 2021 313   North Florida W 65-51 93%     2 - 0 +2.8 -4.6 +9.3
  Nov 17, 2021 303   Prairie View W 91-64 93%     3 - 0 +16.2 +14.5 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2021 66   Wyoming L 61-68 51%     3 - 1 -1.4 -3.2 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2021 253   @ Pepperdine W 59-56 78%     4 - 1 +0.6 -11.6 +12.3
  Nov 29, 2021 131   @ Loyola Marymount W 78-72 54%     5 - 1 +10.9 +11.7 -0.5
  Dec 02, 2021 318   Texas San Antonio W 74-71 94%     6 - 1 -9.1 -2.8 -6.2
  Dec 04, 2021 357   Mississippi Valley W 91-44 99%     7 - 1 +23.0 +5.8 +17.2
  Dec 09, 2021 119   @ Arizona St. L 62-67 50%     7 - 2 +0.9 -5.4 +6.4
  Dec 18, 2021 39   San Francisco W 49-48 32%     8 - 2 +11.6 -11.6 +23.3
  Dec 30, 2021 350   Chicago St. W 80-63 97%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +0.0 +2.0 -1.7
  Jan 06, 2022 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-70 82%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +10.0 +8.3 +1.8
  Jan 13, 2022 141   Abilene Christian W 95-68 75%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +25.9 +24.5 +1.5
  Jan 15, 2022 171   Tarleton St. W 80-59 80%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +18.1 +9.6 +8.9
  Jan 20, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 66-69 37%    
  Feb 03, 2022 160   Seattle W 72-64 79%    
  Feb 05, 2022 236   California Baptist W 75-63 89%    
  Feb 10, 2022 128   @ Utah Valley W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 297   @ Dixie St. W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 16, 2022 236   @ California Baptist W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 93   New Mexico St. W 68-66 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. W 75-57 94%    
  Feb 26, 2022 212   Sam Houston St. W 71-60 85%    
  Mar 03, 2022 128   Utah Valley W 68-62 72%    
  Mar 05, 2022 297   Dixie St. W 80-64 94%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 13 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.1 13.4 16.8 9.5 2.4 46.3 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 11.4 8.5 1.6 0.0 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 6.8 3.9 0.4 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.1 3.4 0.3 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.9 0.5 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.5 8.2 14.4 19.6 22.3 18.4 9.5 2.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.4 0.0
16-2 99.7% 9.5    9.0 0.4
15-3 91.3% 16.8    12.5 4.1 0.2
14-4 60.2% 13.4    5.8 6.0 1.5 0.1
13-5 20.8% 4.1    0.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.1
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.3% 46.3 30.2 12.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.4% 69.7% 57.1% 12.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 29.4%
16-2 9.5% 54.1% 50.7% 3.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.4 6.8%
15-3 18.4% 44.8% 44.3% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.7 4.8 2.6 0.1 10.1 0.9%
14-4 22.3% 37.2% 37.1% 0.1% 12.6 0.1 3.3 4.3 0.6 0.0 14.0 0.2%
13-5 19.6% 27.9% 27.9% 13.0 0.0 1.1 3.4 0.9 0.0 14.1
12-6 14.4% 19.4% 19.4% 13.2 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.1 11.6
11-7 8.2% 15.3% 15.3% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 6.9
10-8 3.5% 9.8% 9.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.2
9-9 1.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.3% 32.5% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 12.2 13.6 3.1 0.1 66.7 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 7.8 0.4 2.6 9.3 21.5 16.0 12.6 16.5 6.0 11.5 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 39.5% 10.8 2.3 3.2 7.3 12.7 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 21.6% 10.9 3.1 4.1 5.8 8.2 0.3