California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#236
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#246
Pace70.4#133
Improvement-3.0#301

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#206
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#249
Layup/Dunks+5.1#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#356
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement-2.1#293

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#268
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#218
Layups/Dunks-2.3#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
Freethrows-0.3#214
Improvement-0.9#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.4 14.7
.500 or above 60.7% 80.6% 53.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 40.6% 15.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.4% 2.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 411 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 357   Mississippi Valley W 95-66 96%     1 - 0 +5.0 -0.9 +2.6
  Nov 16, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 77-64 66%     2 - 0 +4.8 +11.7 -5.8
  Nov 18, 2021 287   San Jose St. W 67-66 71%     3 - 0 -8.7 -7.9 -0.8
  Nov 21, 2021 209   Northern Colorado W 74-70 53%     4 - 0 -0.7 -2.8 +2.2
  Nov 24, 2021 17   @ Texas L 44-68 4%     4 - 1 -7.2 -14.5 +4.0
  Dec 02, 2021 300   Cal Poly W 64-55 74%     5 - 1 -1.6 -3.8 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2021 347   North Dakota W 89-71 87%     6 - 1 +1.6 +7.4 -5.2
  Dec 12, 2021 143   @ UC Riverside L 54-70 23%     6 - 2 -12.3 -13.0 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2021 2   @ Arizona L 60-84 2%     6 - 3 -2.0 -5.0 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 84-68 77%     7 - 3 +4.2 -4.8 +7.6
  Jan 08, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. L 56-58 78%     7 - 4 0 - 1 -14.0 -11.4 -2.9
  Jan 12, 2022 297   Dixie St. L 76-79 73%     7 - 5 0 - 2 -13.4 -8.2 -5.0
  Jan 15, 2022 128   Utah Valley W 75-73 35%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +2.0 +4.2 -2.2
  Jan 17, 2022 160   Seattle L 85-92 OT 43%     8 - 6 1 - 3 -9.3 -4.5 -3.5
  Jan 20, 2022 171   @ Tarleton St. L 63-69 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 141   @ Abilene Christian L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 26, 2022 212   Sam Houston St. W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin L 71-73 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 65-78 11%    
  Feb 05, 2022 96   @ Grand Canyon L 63-75 11%    
  Feb 10, 2022 335   Lamar W 76-66 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-75 70%    
  Feb 16, 2022 96   Grand Canyon L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 160   @ Seattle L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 24, 2022 297   @ Dixie St. W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 128   @ Utah Valley L 65-74 19%    
  Mar 02, 2022 350   Chicago St. W 77-64 89%    
  Mar 05, 2022 335   @ Lamar W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 2.5 0.2 4.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.9 1.4 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.4 4.2 0.3 15.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.8 9.6 14.0 7.5 1.0 0.0 35.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 6.2 7.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 19.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.3 6.2 12.1 18.3 20.7 17.8 12.3 6.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 2.7% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 2.7
10-8 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 6.2
9-9 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
8-10 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.8
7-11 20.7% 20.7
6-12 18.3% 18.3
5-13 12.1% 12.1
4-14 6.2% 6.2
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%