Dixie St.
Western Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#297
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#271
Pace79.6#8
Improvement+0.5#162

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#270
First Shot-4.0#298
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#137
Layup/Dunks-0.3#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#296
Freethrows+2.1#45
Improvement-2.2#307

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#302
First Shot-5.6#330
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#74
Layups/Dunks-3.2#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#284
Freethrows-0.5#232
Improvement+2.7#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 2.7% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.6% 5.4% 32.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 82 - 15
Quad 46 - 58 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-97 1%     0 - 1 -8.9 -8.8 +4.3
  Nov 12, 2021 142   Southern Utah W 83-76 26%     1 - 1 +5.7 +2.3 +2.9
  Nov 19, 2021 150   Texas St. L 65-85 20%     1 - 2 -19.2 -8.1 -11.1
  Nov 20, 2021 296   @ Cal St. Northridge L 73-79 40%     1 - 3 -11.4 -3.7 -7.4
  Nov 22, 2021 26   @ USC L 71-98 3%     1 - 4 -11.8 -4.1 -4.2
  Nov 27, 2021 147   Weber St. L 70-87 27%     1 - 5 -18.5 -8.6 -8.9
  Dec 11, 2021 317   Denver W 82-62 65%     2 - 5 +8.1 +4.9 +3.7
  Dec 18, 2021 347   @ North Dakota W 78-69 63%     3 - 5 -2.4 +1.4 -3.2
  Dec 22, 2021 142   @ Southern Utah L 59-87 14%     3 - 6 -24.2 -18.1 -3.7
  Dec 30, 2021 171   Tarleton St. L 69-83 31%     3 - 7 0 - 1 -16.9 +0.3 -17.9
  Jan 01, 2022 141   Abilene Christian L 50-64 26%     3 - 8 0 - 2 -15.1 -23.6 +9.2
  Jan 08, 2022 128   @ Utah Valley L 71-79 12%     3 - 9 0 - 3 -3.0 -3.0 +0.4
  Jan 12, 2022 236   @ California Baptist W 79-76 27%     4 - 9 1 - 3 +1.5 -1.6 +2.8
  Jan 15, 2022 160   @ Seattle L 68-79 16%     4 - 10 1 - 4 -8.3 -9.8 +2.7
  Jan 20, 2022 335   Lamar W 78-72 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-81 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 03, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-77 21%    
  Feb 05, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-81 15%    
  Feb 10, 2022 93   New Mexico St. L 69-81 15%    
  Feb 12, 2022 96   Grand Canyon L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 16, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 67-84 6%    
  Feb 19, 2022 128   Utah Valley L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 24, 2022 236   California Baptist L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 160   Seattle L 74-80 33%    
  Mar 03, 2022 141   @ Abilene Christian L 69-81 13%    
  Mar 05, 2022 96   @ Grand Canyon L 64-80 6%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.5 5.5 1.9 0.1 15.1 9th
10th 0.4 5.2 11.3 9.6 2.5 0.2 29.1 10th
11th 0.2 6.0 13.0 8.9 2.3 0.2 30.6 11th
12th 0.1 2.8 6.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.3 12th
13th 1.0 2.7 1.3 0.2 5.3 13th
Total 1.2 5.7 14.6 21.6 22.5 17.7 9.8 4.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.5
9-9 1.5% 1.5
8-10 4.8% 4.8
7-11 9.8% 9.8
6-12 17.7% 17.7
5-13 22.5% 22.5
4-14 21.6% 21.6
3-15 14.6% 14.6
2-16 5.7% 5.7
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%