Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#162
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#150
Pace71.4#106
Improvement-1.8#258

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#212
First Shot-1.4#228
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#175
Layup/Dunks+5.9#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#314
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement-2.4#313

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#128
First Shot+4.2#57
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#345
Layups/Dunks+3.5#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#49
Freethrows-4.2#349
Improvement+0.6#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 9.3% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 85.0% 94.5% 78.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 96.0% 82.6%
Conference Champion 6.7% 13.6% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.7% 9.3% 4.9%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Home) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 49 - 315 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 98   South Dakota St. L 71-83 38%     0 - 1 -8.7 -11.5 +3.7
  Nov 19, 2021 159   Middle Tennessee W 87-74 59%     1 - 1 +10.7 +7.2 +2.3
  Nov 23, 2021 103   Buffalo W 79-78 34%     2 - 1 +5.5 +0.3 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2021 71   Saint Louis L 68-79 24%     2 - 2 -3.3 -3.1 +0.2
  Nov 28, 2021 345   @ Northwestern St. W 72-68 84%     3 - 2 -6.6 -7.9 +1.3
  Dec 11, 2021 104   Liberty W 63-51 34%     4 - 2 +16.5 -0.8 +18.7
  Dec 14, 2021 258   Louisiana Monroe L 69-82 77%     4 - 3 -20.5 -6.9 -14.2
  Dec 18, 2021 7   @ Kansas L 72-80 4%     4 - 4 +12.4 +4.8 +7.9
  Jan 06, 2022 141   @ Abilene Christian W 64-58 36%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +9.9 -7.4 +17.0
  Jan 08, 2022 171   @ Tarleton St. L 71-77 OT 42%     5 - 5 1 - 1 -3.9 -3.3 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2022 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 86-75 81%     6 - 5 2 - 1 +2.0 +1.7 -0.4
  Jan 15, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. L 41-49 50%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -7.8 -26.2 +17.5
  Jan 17, 2022 335   Lamar W 86-78 90%     7 - 6 3 - 2 -6.0 +5.0 -10.9
  Jan 20, 2022 96   Grand Canyon L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 93   New Mexico St. L 68-72 39%    
  Jan 26, 2022 160   @ Seattle L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 236   @ California Baptist W 73-71 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 128   Utah Valley W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 297   Dixie St. W 81-70 85%    
  Feb 10, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 16, 2022 350   Chicago St. W 77-60 95%    
  Feb 19, 2022 335   @ Lamar W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 24, 2022 212   Sam Houston St. W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 141   Abilene Christian W 70-69 56%    
  Mar 02, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 66-75 21%    
  Mar 05, 2022 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 3.0 1.5 0.2 6.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 6.2 2.2 0.2 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.0 7.8 3.5 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.4 5.7 0.4 14.5 4th
5th 0.4 5.2 7.9 0.9 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 7.7 2.5 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 6.1 3.6 0.2 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.6 13.1 18.3 20.2 17.4 11.8 5.3 1.6 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-3 90.8% 1.5    1.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 56.6% 3.0    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
13-5 15.5% 1.8    0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 35.8% 35.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.6% 27.7% 27.7% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2
14-4 5.3% 23.2% 23.2% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 4.1
13-5 11.8% 14.7% 14.7% 13.7 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 10.1
12-6 17.4% 8.5% 8.5% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 15.9
11-7 20.2% 5.2% 5.2% 14.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 19.1
10-8 18.3% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 17.8
9-9 13.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.1 0.1 13.0
8-10 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
7-11 3.2% 3.2
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 1.3 0.1 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 7.7 23.1 61.5 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%