Chicago St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.5#350
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#292
Pace69.2#162
Improvement-1.0#217

Offense
Total Offense-8.8#349
First Shot-8.8#352
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#178
Layup/Dunks-4.7#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#170
Freethrows-2.4#328
Improvement+0.5#148

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#328
First Shot-4.0#302
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#309
Layups/Dunks+2.6#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#313
Freethrows-3.0#332
Improvement-1.5#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.4% 10.9% 33.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 9.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 90 - 15
Quad 47 - 87 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 288   St. Thomas W 77-72 33%     1 - 0 -5.0 -3.5 -1.3
  Nov 12, 2021 273   SIU Edwardsville W 67-56 30%     2 - 0 +2.1 -4.3 +7.1
  Nov 16, 2021 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 56-92 1%     2 - 1 -21.2 -11.2 -8.9
  Nov 20, 2021 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 50-81 7%     2 - 2 -29.1 -21.8 -7.9
  Nov 22, 2021 260   @ Pacific L 58-74 14%     2 - 3 -18.7 -13.5 -5.4
  Nov 28, 2021 182   @ Bowling Green L 57-75 7%     2 - 4 -16.2 -22.5 +7.8
  Dec 01, 2021 259   @ Loyola Maryland L 64-78 13%     2 - 5 -16.6 -13.1 -2.5
  Dec 04, 2021 308   Tennessee St. W 59-49 36%     3 - 5 -0.9 -14.4 +14.5
  Dec 11, 2021 202   Illinois St. L 71-80 17%     3 - 6 -13.2 -1.7 -12.2
  Dec 13, 2021 295   Northern Illinois L 59-70 34%     3 - 7 -21.4 -15.2 -6.2
  Dec 16, 2021 355   @ IUPUI W 61-55 52%     4 - 7 -9.0 -11.7 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2021 36   @ Iowa St. L 48-79 1%     4 - 8 -17.2 -15.1 -1.9
  Dec 22, 2021 106   @ Drake L 50-87 3%     4 - 9 -30.0 -13.1 -22.3
  Dec 30, 2021 96   @ Grand Canyon L 63-80 3%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -8.6 -4.4 -4.6
  Jan 01, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 61-78 3%     4 - 11 0 - 2 -8.3 -10.1 +2.2
  Jan 06, 2022 160   Seattle L 77-93 13%     4 - 12 0 - 3 -18.3 +3.7 -22.0
  Jan 08, 2022 236   California Baptist W 58-56 22%     5 - 12 1 - 3 -4.5 -8.8 +4.6
  Jan 13, 2022 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 63-85 16%     5 - 13 1 - 4 -26.0 -17.2 -7.3
  Jan 15, 2022 335   @ Lamar W 67-56 30%     6 - 13 2 - 4 +2.1 -2.0 +5.7
  Jan 27, 2022 128   Utah Valley L 59-74 9%    
  Jan 29, 2022 297   Dixie St. L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 02, 2022 141   @ Abilene Christian L 59-77 4%    
  Feb 05, 2022 171   @ Tarleton St. L 54-71 5%    
  Feb 10, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin L 63-75 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 212   Sam Houston St. L 62-72 19%    
  Feb 16, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 60-77 5%    
  Feb 19, 2022 171   Tarleton St. L 57-69 16%    
  Feb 23, 2022 96   Grand Canyon L 57-75 6%    
  Feb 26, 2022 93   New Mexico St. L 60-78 5%    
  Mar 02, 2022 236   @ California Baptist L 64-77 11%    
  Mar 05, 2022 160   @ Seattle L 61-78 5%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.4 3.4 4.2 1.8 0.2 10.1 10th
11th 0.5 8.3 12.0 5.0 0.7 0.0 26.6 11th
12th 15.4 22.5 8.3 1.0 0.1 47.3 12th
13th 9.2 3.8 0.3 0.0 13.3 13th
Total 25.1 35.0 24.0 10.9 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 1.0% 1.0
6-12 3.7% 3.7
5-13 10.9% 10.9
4-14 24.0% 24.0
3-15 35.0% 35.0
2-16 25.1% 25.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 25.1%