New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#93
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#40
Pace66.8#236
Improvement+1.8#90

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#68
First Shot+0.8#152
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#5
Layup/Dunks+2.7#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#114
Freethrows-0.9#256
Improvement-0.5#211

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot+2.3#100
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#202
Layups/Dunks+3.5#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows-0.6#236
Improvement+2.3#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.5% 41.0% 29.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.8% 8.7% 2.9%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 45.9% 53.2% 28.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 3.4% 1.6%
First Round36.0% 39.2% 28.3%
Second Round9.3% 10.6% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.8% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 23 - 24 - 2
Quad 310 - 313 - 5
Quad 49 - 123 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 110   UC Irvine W 62-51 67%     1 - 0 +12.8 -1.5 +15.2
  Nov 13, 2021 168   UTEP W 77-71 80%     2 - 0 +3.4 +5.4 -2.0
  Nov 18, 2021 53   Davidson W 75-64 39%     3 - 0 +20.2 +10.2 +11.1
  Nov 19, 2021 73   Utah St. L 58-85 45%     3 - 1 -19.5 -5.5 -16.8
  Nov 21, 2021 169   Indiana St. W 80-66 73%     4 - 1 +13.9 +11.0 +3.4
  Nov 30, 2021 193   New Mexico L 94-101 83%     4 - 2 -10.9 +5.4 -15.4
  Dec 03, 2021 168   @ UTEP W 72-69 64%     5 - 2 +5.4 +9.9 -4.2
  Dec 06, 2021 193   @ New Mexico W 78-76 OT 69%     6 - 2 +3.1 -7.9 +10.8
  Dec 11, 2021 131   @ Loyola Marymount W 63-58 55%     7 - 2 +9.9 -8.2 +18.0
  Dec 15, 2021 52   @ Washington St. W 64-61 30%     8 - 2 +14.7 +2.7 +12.3
  Jan 01, 2022 350   Chicago St. W 78-61 97%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +0.0 -3.7 +3.3
  Jan 08, 2022 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-73 83%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +8.0 +8.3 -0.4
  Jan 13, 2022 171   Tarleton St. W 73-57 80%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +13.1 +2.2 +11.2
  Jan 15, 2022 141   Abilene Christian W 77-63 76%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +12.9 +10.2 +3.4
  Jan 20, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin W 72-68 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 96   Grand Canyon W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 03, 2022 236   California Baptist W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 05, 2022 160   Seattle W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 10, 2022 297   @ Dixie St. W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 128   @ Utah Valley W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 16, 2022 297   Dixie St. W 84-67 94%    
  Feb 19, 2022 96   @ Grand Canyon L 66-68 40%    
  Feb 21, 2022 160   @ Seattle W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 26, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. W 78-60 95%    
  Mar 02, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin W 75-66 79%    
  Mar 05, 2022 128   Utah Valley W 71-65 73%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 13 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.3 13.2 16.6 9.0 2.5 45.9 1st
2nd 0.1 3.4 11.3 7.4 1.4 0.0 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.1 6.6 4.3 0.5 12.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 3.8 0.4 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.0 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.1 8.3 14.6 20.2 21.2 18.0 9.0 2.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5
16-2 99.8% 9.0    8.6 0.4
15-3 92.5% 16.6    12.6 3.9 0.1
14-4 62.5% 13.2    5.9 5.7 1.5 0.1
13-5 21.3% 4.3    0.6 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.9% 45.9 30.3 11.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.5% 84.6% 55.1% 29.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 65.7%
16-2 9.0% 70.0% 50.3% 19.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.0 2.7 39.7%
15-3 18.0% 52.8% 45.3% 7.5% 11.4 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.5 0.4 8.5 13.6%
14-4 21.2% 41.5% 38.9% 2.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.5 1.4 0.0 12.4 4.1%
13-5 20.2% 28.7% 28.0% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.4 3.8 1.6 0.0 14.4 1.0%
12-6 14.6% 21.2% 21.1% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 1.7 1.2 0.1 11.5 0.2%
11-7 8.3% 16.7% 16.7% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 6.9
10-8 4.1% 11.9% 11.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.6
9-9 1.6% 4.7% 4.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 1.6
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.5% 33.0% 4.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.9 7.5 17.2 5.8 0.3 62.5 6.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 6.0 0.6 0.4 3.2 13.8 21.7 27.2 17.5 8.6 4.5 1.0 0.6 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 68.9% 9.2 2.0 4.1 15.2 20.3 15.5 10.8 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 62.2% 9.6 1.1 1.1 3.4 6.7 15.0 14.6 16.5 3.7