Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#141
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#151
Pace72.4#79
Improvement-3.5#317

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#224
First Shot-0.3#187
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#292
Layup/Dunks+0.4#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
Freethrows+1.4#84
Improvement-1.1#243

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#85
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#55
Layups/Dunks+5.5#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#254
Freethrows-2.7#321
Improvement-2.5#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 9.1% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 95.9% 98.3% 91.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 94.3% 79.3%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.6% 9.1% 4.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 412 - 316 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 111   @ Utah L 56-70 30%     0 - 1 -7.3 -15.0 +7.8
  Nov 12, 2021 60   @ Texas A&M L 80-81 2OT 18%     0 - 2 +10.0 +5.0 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2021 220   @ Texas Arlington W 80-71 OT 56%     1 - 2 +8.7 -1.7 +9.2
  Dec 04, 2021 353   Incarnate Word W 98-65 95%     2 - 2 +14.9 +10.0 +3.0
  Dec 11, 2021 158   Drexel W 73-56 64%     3 - 2 +14.8 -7.1 +20.9
  Dec 15, 2021 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-59 76%     4 - 2 +4.1 -9.3 +12.6
  Dec 22, 2021 187   Longwood W 74-58 68%     5 - 2 +12.5 -6.5 +17.6
  Dec 30, 2021 128   @ Utah Valley W 80-76 36%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +9.0 +18.0 -8.5
  Jan 01, 2022 297   @ Dixie St. W 64-50 74%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +8.6 -15.5 +23.3
  Jan 06, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin L 58-64 64%     7 - 3 2 - 1 -8.4 -17.4 +9.4
  Jan 08, 2022 212   Sam Houston St. L 63-65 72%     7 - 4 2 - 2 -6.8 -3.4 -3.7
  Jan 13, 2022 96   @ Grand Canyon L 68-95 25%     7 - 5 2 - 3 -18.6 -0.7 -18.0
  Jan 15, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 63-77 24%     7 - 6 2 - 4 -5.3 -3.3 -2.7
  Jan 20, 2022 160   Seattle W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 236   California Baptist W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 26, 2022 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 335   @ Lamar W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 02, 2022 350   Chicago St. W 77-59 96%    
  Feb 05, 2022 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-70 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 171   @ Tarleton St. L 63-64 46%    
  Feb 17, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 24, 2022 335   Lamar W 76-61 93%    
  Feb 26, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-70 44%    
  Mar 03, 2022 297   Dixie St. W 81-69 87%    
  Mar 05, 2022 171   Tarleton St. W 65-61 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 1.2 2.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 5.3 1.4 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.4 8.8 3.6 0.2 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 8.4 6.0 0.4 15.9 4th
5th 0.4 5.6 9.2 1.1 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 8.6 3.0 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.2 4.6 0.2 12.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 6.7 13.3 20.6 23.4 18.7 10.3 2.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 41.4% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.9% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.8% 25.7% 25.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 10.3% 17.7% 17.7% 13.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 8.5
12-6 18.7% 12.0% 12.0% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 16.5
11-7 23.4% 6.8% 6.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 21.8
10-8 20.6% 4.4% 4.4% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 19.7
9-9 13.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.0
8-10 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.7
7-11 3.0% 3.0
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.0 0.3 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.9 4.5 22.9 54.5 17.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%