Sam Houston St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#212
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#215
Pace66.7#240
Improvement+3.9#37

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#228
First Shot-2.0#246
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#186
Layup/Dunks-0.2#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#51
Freethrows-4.9#358
Improvement+1.3#96

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#180
First Shot-1.6#233
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#73
Layups/Dunks+2.1#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#301
Freethrows-1.0#264
Improvement+2.6#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.6% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 20.2% 34.8% 13.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 95.3% 79.9%
Conference Champion 4.7% 11.1% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round2.6% 4.3% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 84 - 13
Quad 49 - 313 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 140   @ Nebraska L 65-74 27%     0 - 1 -5.0 -8.7 +4.1
  Nov 17, 2021 77   Missouri St. L 55-77 25%     0 - 2 -17.3 -15.0 -3.4
  Nov 21, 2021 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-59 70%     1 - 2 +10.2 +0.5 +9.8
  Nov 22, 2021 198   Boston University L 59-72 47%     1 - 3 -14.6 -11.4 -4.0
  Nov 24, 2021 63   @ SMU L 66-75 12%     1 - 4 +1.7 -2.4 +4.0
  Nov 29, 2021 17   @ Texas L 57-73 5%     1 - 5 +0.8 +4.4 -6.9
  Dec 11, 2021 318   Texas San Antonio L 73-78 76%     1 - 6 -14.6 -8.2 -6.1
  Dec 14, 2021 83   @ North Texas L 55-65 14%     1 - 7 -0.5 -8.9 +8.0
  Dec 21, 2021 117   Bradley L 61-87 29%     1 - 8 -22.5 -9.6 -12.9
  Dec 22, 2021 327   NC Central W 68-51 80%     2 - 8 +6.0 -0.7 +8.6
  Dec 30, 2021 335   Lamar W 75-64 86%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -3.0 +2.7 -4.4
  Jan 03, 2022 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 86-78 74%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -1.0 +1.8 -3.3
  Jan 06, 2022 171   @ Tarleton St. L 64-75 33%     4 - 9 2 - 1 -8.9 -1.7 -7.8
  Jan 08, 2022 141   @ Abilene Christian W 65-63 28%     5 - 9 3 - 1 +5.9 +4.9 +1.2
  Jan 13, 2022 335   @ Lamar W 73-56 74%     6 - 9 4 - 1 +8.1 +0.8 +8.8
  Jan 15, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin W 49-41 50%     7 - 9 5 - 1 +5.6 -18.1 +24.6
  Jan 20, 2022 93   New Mexico St. L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 96   Grand Canyon L 63-69 31%    
  Jan 26, 2022 236   @ California Baptist L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 160   @ Seattle L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 03, 2022 297   Dixie St. W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 05, 2022 128   Utah Valley L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 17, 2022 141   Abilene Christian L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-73 54%    
  Feb 24, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 96   @ Grand Canyon L 60-71 15%    
  Mar 03, 2022 171   Tarleton St. W 63-62 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 4.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.7 2.3 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.0 4.8 0.2 13.1 4th
5th 0.5 5.0 7.4 0.9 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 8.7 2.7 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 7.5 4.6 0.2 14.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 5.6 5.1 0.6 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.3 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.3 10.0 16.8 20.0 19.4 15.0 8.4 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 89.6% 1.0    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 53.2% 1.9    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.2% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 15.2% 15.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.2% 13.5% 13.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 3.6% 13.8% 13.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.1
13-5 8.4% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 7.8
12-6 15.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 14.4
11-7 19.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.1 0.4 18.9
10-8 20.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.4 19.6
9-9 16.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.7
8-10 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
7-11 4.3% 4.3
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.3 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%