UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#276
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#295
Pace78.0#15
Improvement+0.7#146

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#231
First Shot-0.9#216
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#265
Layup/Dunks+2.5#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#309
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#251
Freethrows+0.9#105
Improvement-0.2#185

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#308
First Shot-3.3#284
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#285
Layups/Dunks-0.6#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#271
Freethrows-1.6#286
Improvement+0.9#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.7 15.5
.500 or above 0.5% 2.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 20.2% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 2.4% 9.1%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 47 - 79 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 2   @ Arizona L 50-104 1%     0 - 1 -32.0 -18.0 -7.3
  Nov 20, 2021 319   Northern Arizona L 87-89 71%     0 - 2 -14.3 -1.1 -12.9
  Nov 22, 2021 319   @ Northern Arizona W 82-80 53%     1 - 2 -5.3 +7.7 -12.9
  Nov 23, 2021 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-67 27%     2 - 2 +4.7 -5.7 +10.2
  Nov 26, 2021 11   @ Illinois L 85-94 2%     2 - 3 +10.2 +17.5 -7.0
  Dec 01, 2021 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 77-83 53%     2 - 4 -13.3 -7.9 -4.6
  Dec 03, 2021 17   @ Texas L 58-88 3%     2 - 5 -13.2 -6.3 -7.0
  Dec 08, 2021 251   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-75 34%     2 - 6 -8.2 -8.3 +0.5
  Dec 14, 2021 204   Texas Southern L 60-70 42%     2 - 7 -14.4 -11.8 -2.9
  Dec 17, 2021 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 68-50 52%     3 - 7 +10.9 -10.7 +20.8
  Jan 03, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. L 78-86 26%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -7.8 +1.0 -8.3
  Jan 06, 2022 96   Grand Canyon L 70-84 18%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -10.7 -1.1 -9.6
  Jan 08, 2022 93   New Mexico St. L 73-85 17%     3 - 10 0 - 3 -8.3 +0.3 -8.6
  Jan 11, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 75-86 19%     3 - 11 0 - 4 -8.3 -0.2 -7.4
  Jan 13, 2022 350   Chicago St. W 85-63 84%     4 - 11 1 - 4 +5.0 -0.5 +4.0
  Jan 20, 2022 128   @ Utah Valley L 67-79 13%    
  Jan 22, 2022 297   @ Dixie St. L 81-82 44%    
  Jan 26, 2022 141   Abilene Christian L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 171   Tarleton St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 02, 2022 335   Lamar W 79-72 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 141   @ Abilene Christian L 70-80 16%    
  Feb 10, 2022 160   @ Seattle L 73-82 18%    
  Feb 12, 2022 236   @ California Baptist L 75-80 30%    
  Feb 16, 2022 160   Seattle L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 212   Sam Houston St. L 73-75 46%    
  Feb 24, 2022 171   @ Tarleton St. L 65-74 20%    
  Mar 02, 2022 335   @ Lamar W 76-74 58%    
  Mar 05, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin L 74-78 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.3 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 1.5 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.6 8.5 3.4 0.2 20.9 9th
10th 0.3 4.8 11.7 11.2 4.2 0.4 0.0 32.6 10th
11th 0.3 4.4 8.9 6.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 21.3 11th
12th 1.4 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.0 12th
13th 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.0 13th
Total 0.6 3.3 9.0 15.7 20.0 19.6 15.1 9.0 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 10.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 8.7% 8.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9
9-9 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
8-10 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-11 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.1
6-12 19.6% 19.6
5-13 20.0% 20.0
4-14 15.7% 15.7
3-15 9.0% 9.0
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%