Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#128
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#125
Pace65.1#290
Improvement-1.8#257

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#144
First Shot+1.6#132
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#212
Layup/Dunks+5.3#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#273
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement-0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#132
First Shot+1.2#138
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#158
Layups/Dunks+2.5#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#163
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement-1.6#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.5% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 97.1% 98.1% 90.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 82.7% 57.8%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.9% 9.5% 4.5%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 34 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 54   @ Boise St. L 56-76 19%     0 - 1 -8.4 -6.9 -2.1
  Nov 15, 2021 253   @ Pepperdine W 86-74 OT 68%     1 - 1 +9.6 +7.8 +1.0
  Nov 17, 2021 239   @ Long Beach St. W 84-78 OT 66%     2 - 1 +4.3 +5.3 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2021 325   Idaho W 83-45 89%     3 - 1 +27.4 -4.3 +28.8
  Nov 24, 2021 218   Nicholls St. W 74-63 69%     4 - 1 +8.4 +2.2 +6.6
  Nov 27, 2021 317   Denver W 77-68 OT 90%     5 - 1 -2.9 -6.3 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2021 29   BYU W 72-65 OT 25%     6 - 1 +16.7 -4.5 +20.3
  Dec 08, 2021 142   @ Southern Utah L 56-60 45%     6 - 2 -0.2 -13.5 +13.1
  Dec 11, 2021 66   @ Wyoming L 62-74 22%     6 - 3 -1.4 +8.1 -12.4
  Dec 21, 2021 130   @ Washington W 68-52 41%     7 - 3 +20.9 +2.4 +19.1
  Dec 30, 2021 141   Abilene Christian L 76-80 64%     7 - 4 0 - 1 -5.1 +13.0 -18.5
  Jan 01, 2022 171   Tarleton St. W 77-55 70%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +19.1 +7.3 +12.4
  Jan 08, 2022 297   Dixie St. W 79-71 88%     9 - 4 2 - 1 -2.4 -3.6 +0.8
  Jan 12, 2022 160   @ Seattle L 65-71 49%     9 - 5 2 - 2 -3.3 -6.8 +3.7
  Jan 15, 2022 236   @ California Baptist L 73-75 65%     9 - 6 2 - 3 -3.5 +0.3 -3.9
  Jan 20, 2022 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 22, 2022 335   Lamar W 76-60 95%    
  Jan 27, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 05, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 10, 2022 96   Grand Canyon L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 93   New Mexico St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 17, 2022 171   @ Tarleton St. W 63-62 50%    
  Feb 19, 2022 297   @ Dixie St. W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 24, 2022 160   Seattle W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 236   California Baptist W 74-65 81%    
  Mar 03, 2022 96   @ Grand Canyon L 62-68 28%    
  Mar 05, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 65-71 27%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.9 1.3 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.8 3.9 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.6 5.3 7.2 0.6 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.5 9.1 2.9 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 8.1 5.2 0.3 16.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.5 5.0 0.7 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.9 11.7 17.6 21.3 19.2 12.9 6.1 2.1 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 98.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 72.3% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.4% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 30.8% 28.9% 1.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7%
14-4 2.1% 31.4% 31.2% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.3%
13-5 6.1% 27.3% 27.3% 12.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 4.5
12-6 12.9% 13.9% 13.9% 13.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 11.1
11-7 19.2% 11.4% 11.4% 13.2 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 17.0
10-8 21.3% 8.4% 8.4% 13.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 19.5
9-9 17.6% 3.3% 3.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 17.0
8-10 11.7% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 5.9
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.3 0.4 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.7 6.5 6.5 32.6 23.9 28.3 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 7.0% 12.0 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%