Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#171
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#211
Pace61.6#336
Improvement+0.7#145

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#246
First Shot-2.2#252
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#205
Layup/Dunks+1.1#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#295
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement+2.1#65

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#109
First Shot+1.4#132
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#119
Layups/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#288
Freethrows-0.7#249
Improvement-1.4#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 42.3% 50.1% 20.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 95.6% 83.1%
Conference Champion 4.8% 6.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 33 - 43 - 12
Quad 410 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 76   @ Stanford L 50-62 17%     0 - 1 -2.1 -8.7 +4.8
  Nov 12, 2021 7   @ Kansas L 62-88 4%     0 - 2 -5.6 +0.7 -7.9
  Nov 16, 2021 87   @ Wichita St. L 51-65 19%     0 - 3 -4.9 -11.2 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2021 188   @ North Dakota St. L 53-54 43%     0 - 4 +0.4 -7.8 +8.0
  Nov 24, 2021 24   @ Michigan L 54-65 8%     0 - 5 +4.3 -6.6 +9.7
  Nov 29, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 55-64 2%     0 - 6 +16.1 -4.6 +20.1
  Dec 05, 2021 351   Charleston Southern L 57-59 94%     0 - 7 -19.5 -20.0 +0.3
  Dec 14, 2021 149   @ South Alabama L 62-69 36%     0 - 8 -3.7 -10.0 +6.4
  Dec 17, 2021 149   South Alabama W 65-52 55%     1 - 8 +11.3 -0.8 +13.6
  Dec 21, 2021 244   Air Force W 67-45 74%     2 - 8 +15.0 +8.0 +11.9
  Dec 30, 2021 297   @ Dixie St. W 83-69 69%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +8.6 +11.0 -1.8
  Jan 01, 2022 128   @ Utah Valley L 55-77 30%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -17.0 -13.5 -4.1
  Jan 06, 2022 212   Sam Houston St. W 75-64 67%     4 - 9 2 - 1 +6.2 +5.0 +1.8
  Jan 08, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin W 77-71 OT 58%     5 - 9 3 - 1 +3.6 -0.9 +4.1
  Jan 13, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 57-73 20%     5 - 10 3 - 2 -7.3 -11.7 +4.1
  Jan 15, 2022 96   @ Grand Canyon L 59-80 20%     5 - 11 3 - 3 -12.6 -8.7 -4.4
  Jan 20, 2022 236   California Baptist W 69-63 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 160   Seattle W 66-64 60%    
  Jan 26, 2022 335   @ Lamar W 68-59 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 350   Chicago St. W 71-54 95%    
  Feb 12, 2022 141   Abilene Christian W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 17, 2022 128   Utah Valley L 62-63 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 350   @ Chicago St. W 69-57 84%    
  Feb 24, 2022 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 335   Lamar W 71-57 90%    
  Mar 03, 2022 212   @ Sam Houston St. L 62-63 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 141   @ Abilene Christian L 61-65 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.9 4.8 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 6.7 3.4 0.3 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.4 10.0 5.0 0.5 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 1.1 8.0 6.9 0.5 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.4 4.9 8.0 1.2 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 7.5 2.8 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.1 3.5 0.3 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.9 0.6 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.1 11.0 17.6 21.4 21.2 13.7 6.2 1.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 77.9% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-4 37.5% 2.3    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
13-5 10.5% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.2% 1.2
14-4 6.2% 6.2
13-5 13.7% 13.7
12-6 21.2% 21.2
11-7 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
10-8 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
9-9 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
8-10 5.1% 5.1
7-11 2.0% 2.0
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2%