Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.9#326
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#331
Pace75.9#38
Improvement+2.5#71

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#331
First Shot-7.3#342
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#106
Layup/Dunks-0.9#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#319
Freethrows-2.5#331
Improvement+1.0#113

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#311
First Shot-4.2#307
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#209
Layups/Dunks-0.3#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#292
Freethrows-2.7#322
Improvement+1.4#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 8.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.2% 14.6% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 49.1% 70.8% 35.9%
Conference Champion 2.4% 5.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.8% 4.1%
First Four5.3% 8.3% 3.6%
First Round2.2% 3.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 48 - 88 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 123   @ George Mason L 53-90 7%     0 - 1 -31.6 -19.7 -10.4
  Nov 18, 2021 160   @ Seattle L 80-93 11%     0 - 2 -10.3 +2.8 -12.1
  Nov 20, 2021 245   @ Portland L 63-74 20%     0 - 3 -13.1 -13.2 +0.6
  Nov 22, 2021 39   @ San Francisco L 67-83 2%     0 - 4 -2.9 -3.8 +2.2
  Nov 28, 2021 322   Grambling St. L 59-74 48%     0 - 5 -25.3 -20.5 -4.2
  Nov 29, 2021 332   Hampton W 60-47 52%     1 - 5 +1.7 -11.2 +13.8
  Dec 11, 2021 187   @ Longwood L 55-93 13%     1 - 6 -36.5 -22.3 -10.2
  Dec 18, 2021 282   @ Mount St. Mary's L 60-74 27%     1 - 7 -18.5 -11.3 -7.6
  Jan 10, 2022 346   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 OT 50%     2 - 7 1 - 0 -3.8 -1.7 -3.2
  Jan 15, 2022 302   Coppin St. L 76-79 49%     2 - 8 1 - 1 -13.7 -12.7 -0.5
  Jan 22, 2022 248   Howard L 76-80 38%    
  Jan 24, 2022 231   @ Norfolk St. L 66-76 16%    
  Jan 29, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 81-67 91%    
  Jan 31, 2022 342   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 70-71 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 327   NC Central W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 14, 2022 346   South Carolina St. W 77-72 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 248   @ Howard L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 21, 2022 231   Norfolk St. L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 26, 2022 358   @ Delaware St. W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 28, 2022 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-68 65%    
  Mar 03, 2022 302   @ Coppin St. L 74-79 30%    
Projected Record 7 - 14 6 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 3.8 2.0 0.2 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 8.4 3.8 0.3 16.7 3rd
4th 0.8 7.1 12.6 5.2 0.4 26.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 6.9 11.5 4.0 0.2 23.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.2 7.4 2.6 0.1 16.1 6th
7th 0.4 2.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 8th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.6 9.0 15.9 21.5 20.7 15.5 8.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 78.4% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
10-4 32.9% 1.1    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
9-5 4.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.1% 44.4% 44.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.9% 24.5% 24.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
10-4 3.4% 23.6% 23.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 2.6
9-5 8.4% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 1.3 7.0
8-6 15.5% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.1 14.5
7-7 20.7% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.9 19.8
6-8 21.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.8 20.8
5-9 15.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 15.7
4-10 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-11 3.6% 3.6
2-12 0.8% 0.8
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.4 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.7 34.4 65.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 0.1%