NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.0#327
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#307
Pace71.1#112
Improvement+0.8#142

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#339
First Shot-7.1#340
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#213
Layup/Dunks-0.6#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#337
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement+1.7#77

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#290
First Shot-3.2#281
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#200
Layups/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#213
Freethrows-5.8#357
Improvement-0.9#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.4% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.7% 7.0% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 43.0% 49.7% 19.3%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.1% 11.3%
First Four4.6% 5.2% 2.4%
First Round2.0% 2.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Away) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 49 - 99 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 99   @ Richmond L 60-70 5%     0 - 1 -1.7 -9.7 +8.0
  Nov 13, 2021 41   @ Memphis L 51-90 2%     0 - 2 -25.9 -22.8 +2.6
  Nov 16, 2021 21   @ Iowa L 69-86 2%     0 - 3 -1.3 -1.1 +0.1
  Nov 20, 2021 339   @ Alabama St. L 74-80 OT 45%     0 - 4 -15.6 -14.8 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2021 223   @ Gardner-Webb L 58-83 16%     0 - 5 -25.4 -15.5 -8.9
  Dec 01, 2021 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 67-65 32%     1 - 5 -4.1 -11.3 +7.2
  Dec 04, 2021 249   @ UNC Asheville L 66-82 20%     1 - 6 -18.2 -13.5 -3.6
  Dec 06, 2021 283   @ The Citadel L 67-80 27%     1 - 7 -17.5 -10.4 -7.1
  Dec 15, 2021 223   Gardner-Webb W 72-71 29%     2 - 7 -4.4 -6.7 +2.3
  Dec 18, 2021 358   Delaware St. W 86-53 85%     3 - 7 1 - 0 +10.7 -0.8 +10.6
  Dec 21, 2021 168   @ UTEP L 61-70 11%     3 - 8 -6.6 +0.7 -8.5
  Dec 22, 2021 212   Sam Houston St. L 51-68 20%     3 - 9 -19.3 -16.4 -4.8
  Jan 22, 2022 358   @ Delaware St. W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 24, 2022 342   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 248   Howard L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 31, 2022 231   Norfolk St. L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 12, 2022 326   @ Morgan St. L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 14, 2022 302   @ Coppin St. L 70-75 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 21, 2022 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 248   @ Howard L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 28, 2022 231   @ Norfolk St. L 63-73 17%    
  Mar 03, 2022 346   South Carolina St. W 74-69 69%    
Projected Record 8 - 15 6 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.5 0.2 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 7.0 3.0 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.9 6.6 11.6 4.7 0.3 24.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 7.7 12.2 4.2 0.2 25.2 5th
6th 1.0 6.1 8.9 3.1 0.1 19.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.4 1.2 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 8th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.4 10.6 18.6 22.2 19.5 13.3 6.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 74.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 35.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-5 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.1% 52.6% 52.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.7% 25.8% 25.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.5
10-4 2.6% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 0.6 2.0
9-5 6.9% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 1.0 5.9
8-6 13.3% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.9 12.4
7-7 19.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.9 18.6
6-8 22.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.8 21.5
5-9 18.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 18.3
4-10 10.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.6
3-11 4.4% 4.4
2-12 1.1% 1.1
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.7 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 15.7 30.0 70.0
Lose Out 0.1%