Howard
Mid-Eastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#248
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#288
Pace77.0#24
Improvement+0.9#134

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#217
First Shot-1.0#218
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#210
Layup/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#147
Freethrows-2.1#316
Improvement-1.7#282

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#278
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#214
Layups/Dunks-3.7#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#60
Freethrows-3.1#334
Improvement+2.6#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 34.9% 24.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 77.0% 86.0% 61.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 97.4% 86.8%
Conference Champion 25.0% 31.9% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four26.1% 28.0% 23.0%
First Round18.6% 21.7% 13.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Away) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 5
Quad 413 - 715 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 117   @ Bradley W 76-64 16%     1 - 0 +18.0 +11.8 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 81-100 2%     1 - 1 +1.4 +21.8 -21.3
  Nov 20, 2021 275   @ High Point L 63-73 47%     1 - 2 -13.9 -15.5 +2.3
  Nov 21, 2021 340   William & Mary W 82-76 77%     2 - 2 -6.2 -0.3 -6.2
  Nov 26, 2021 314   Austin Peay L 67-69 74%     2 - 3 -13.2 -13.9 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2021 282   @ Mount St. Mary's L 70-72 50%     2 - 4 -6.5 +1.1 -7.7
  Dec 04, 2021 330   American W 90-56 81%     3 - 4 +20.3 +6.2 +12.7
  Dec 15, 2021 155   @ Georgetown L 73-85 23%     3 - 5 -9.0 -8.1 +0.5
  Dec 18, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 79-57 56%     4 - 5 +15.9 +4.2 +11.8
  Dec 21, 2021 179   @ Harvard L 69-77 27%     4 - 6 -6.2 -8.8 +3.3
  Jan 15, 2022 231   Norfolk St. L 74-77 56%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -9.1 -3.8 -5.1
  Jan 17, 2022 65   Notre Dame L 68-71 17%     4 - 8 +2.6 -2.4 +5.0
  Jan 22, 2022 326   @ Morgan St. W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 24, 2022 302   @ Coppin St. W 80-79 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 327   @ NC Central W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 31, 2022 346   @ South Carolina St. W 81-75 70%    
  Feb 05, 2022 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-67 84%    
  Feb 07, 2022 358   @ Delaware St. W 84-69 92%    
  Feb 12, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 86-66 97%    
  Feb 14, 2022 342   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 19, 2022 326   Morgan St. W 82-73 80%    
  Feb 21, 2022 302   Coppin St. W 82-76 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 327   NC Central W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 28, 2022 346   South Carolina St. W 83-72 86%    
  Mar 03, 2022 231   @ Norfolk St. L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.6 9.1 8.0 2.5 25.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.8 11.4 15.0 8.5 1.9 39.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 8.3 7.2 1.5 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.0 0.3 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.1 8.3 14.2 19.6 21.2 17.7 9.9 2.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 2.5    2.2 0.3
12-2 80.4% 8.0    5.6 2.4
11-3 51.6% 9.1    4.4 4.4 0.3
10-4 21.9% 4.6    1.2 2.3 1.1 0.0
9-5 3.6% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 13.5 9.5 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 2.5% 59.5% 59.5% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.5 1.0
12-2 9.9% 49.4% 49.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.5 5.0
11-3 17.7% 44.0% 44.0% 16.0 0.1 7.7 9.9
10-4 21.2% 35.9% 35.9% 16.0 0.0 7.6 13.6
9-5 19.6% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 4.9 14.7
8-6 14.2% 19.1% 19.1% 16.0 2.7 11.5
7-7 8.3% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 1.2 7.1
6-8 4.1% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.4 3.7
5-9 1.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 1.7
4-10 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-11 0.2% 0.2
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.2 1.4 29.5 68.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 15.2 9.0 59.4 31.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%