Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#231
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#145
Pace71.1#114
Improvement+2.1#82

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#293
First Shot-2.0#245
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#328
Layup/Dunks+1.6#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#333
Freethrows+1.7#62
Improvement-0.3#200

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#144
First Shot+0.9#148
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#173
Layups/Dunks+2.3#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#320
Freethrows-0.4#223
Improvement+2.5#43
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.8% 42.9% 34.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.8%
Conference Champion 75.0% 82.0% 52.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.2% 14.8% 20.6%
First Round32.2% 35.2% 23.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 12 - 3
Quad 417 - 419 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 308   Tennessee St. W 66-59 68%     1 - 0 -1.4 -20.2 +18.0
  Nov 16, 2021 340   William & Mary W 91-74 85%     2 - 0 +2.3 +7.0 -5.7
  Nov 19, 2021 182   @ Bowling Green W 90-84 30%     3 - 0 +7.8 +8.6 -1.2
  Nov 21, 2021 19   @ Xavier L 48-88 4%     3 - 1 -23.7 -21.3 +1.1
  Nov 28, 2021 332   Hampton W 70-61 77%     4 - 1 -2.3 -4.1 +2.0
  Nov 29, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 70-63 74%     5 - 1 -3.3 -8.7 +5.3
  Dec 01, 2021 256   @ UNC Wilmington W 74-69 46%     6 - 1 +2.5 +0.5 +2.0
  Dec 04, 2021 332   @ Hampton L 57-58 69%     6 - 2 -9.8 -11.0 +1.1
  Dec 11, 2021 87   @ Wichita St. L 58-71 12%     6 - 3 -3.9 -2.7 -2.3
  Dec 21, 2021 193   @ New Mexico L 54-68 32%     6 - 4 -12.9 -18.9 +5.8
  Jan 12, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 80-51 96%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +4.2 -4.7 +9.2
  Jan 15, 2022 248   @ Howard W 77-74 44%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +0.9 -2.5 +3.2
  Jan 17, 2022 342   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-58 73%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +4.1 -7.7 +11.0
  Jan 22, 2022 302   Coppin St. W 76-69 76%    
  Jan 24, 2022 326   Morgan St. W 76-66 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 346   @ South Carolina St. W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 31, 2022 327   @ NC Central W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-61 86%    
  Feb 14, 2022 358   @ Delaware St. W 78-62 93%    
  Feb 19, 2022 302   @ Coppin St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 21, 2022 326   @ Morgan St. W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 346   South Carolina St. W 77-65 88%    
  Feb 28, 2022 327   NC Central W 73-63 83%    
  Mar 03, 2022 248   Howard W 75-71 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 7 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 7.2 17.9 23.7 17.8 7.4 75.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.6 7.3 4.0 0.7 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.5 8.4 15.1 21.9 24.4 17.8 7.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 7.4    7.4
13-1 100.0% 17.8    17.5 0.3
12-2 97.0% 23.7    20.7 3.0
11-3 81.8% 17.9    11.5 6.1 0.4
10-4 47.5% 7.2    2.5 3.5 1.2 0.0
9-5 12.2% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 75.0% 75.0 59.6 13.2 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 7.4% 55.2% 55.2% 14.4 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.1 3.3
13-1 17.8% 51.8% 51.8% 15.3 0.0 0.5 5.0 3.6 8.6
12-2 24.4% 45.5% 45.5% 15.7 0.1 2.7 8.3 13.3
11-3 21.9% 40.6% 40.6% 15.9 0.0 0.7 8.2 13.0
10-4 15.1% 31.9% 31.9% 16.0 0.1 4.7 10.3
9-5 8.4% 23.2% 23.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9 6.5
8-6 3.5% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.6 2.9
7-7 1.1% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.1 1.0
6-8 0.3% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-9 0.0% 0.0
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 40.8% 40.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.4 2.4 10.4 27.6 59.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 14.4 8.6 44.1 45.0 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%