Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#65
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.7#41
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 2.7% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 4.7% 8.5% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 9.7% 16.2% 5.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.1% 50.3% 26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.0% 44.4% 22.7%
Average Seed 8.2 7.8 8.7
.500 or above 72.2% 85.9% 63.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.2% 70.9% 53.1%
Conference Champion 7.8% 11.8% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.5% 6.0%
First Four6.2% 7.3% 5.5%
First Round32.6% 46.2% 23.8%
Second Round17.1% 25.6% 11.5%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 10.1% 3.7%
Elite Eight2.3% 4.0% 1.2%
Final Four0.9% 1.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Neutral) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 25 - 57 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 40   Colorado L 75-78 39%    
  Nov 14, 2019 342   Central Connecticut St. W 91-66 99%    
  Nov 17, 2019 180   Rider W 92-79 88%    
  Nov 23, 2019 93   St. John's W 82-79 62%    
  Nov 26, 2019 143   @ Princeton W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 03, 2019 111   @ San Francisco W 77-76 55%    
  Dec 07, 2019 202   Louisiana W 91-77 88%    
  Dec 11, 2019 277   Prairie View W 90-72 94%    
  Dec 14, 2019 62   Georgia W 80-78 58%    
  Dec 18, 2019 19   St. Mary's L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 21, 2019 37   Creighton L 79-80 50%    
  Dec 28, 2019 265   Texas Southern W 96-79 93%    
  Jan 04, 2020 31   @ Arizona L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 09, 2020 74   @ Oregon St. L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 11, 2020 16   @ Oregon L 67-76 24%    
  Jan 16, 2020 40   Colorado W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 18, 2020 110   Utah W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 25, 2020 31   Arizona L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 29, 2020 157   @ Washington St. W 84-79 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 44   @ Washington L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 06, 2020 82   UCLA W 87-82 65%    
  Feb 08, 2020 64   USC W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 13, 2020 113   @ Stanford W 79-77 55%    
  Feb 16, 2020 166   @ California W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 20, 2020 16   Oregon L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 22, 2020 74   Oregon St. W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 27, 2020 82   @ UCLA L 84-85 46%    
  Feb 29, 2020 64   @ USC L 79-82 39%    
  Mar 05, 2020 44   Washington W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 07, 2020 157   Washington St. W 87-76 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.2 7.4 9.2 10.7 11.3 11.6 10.5 9.1 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.9% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 93.5% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 72.7% 2.3    1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.0% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.8% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 67.2% 32.8% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 3.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.2% 99.7% 29.6% 70.1% 4.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-4 5.1% 97.2% 26.4% 70.9% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.2%
13-5 7.0% 87.9% 15.9% 72.0% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 85.6%
12-6 9.1% 76.6% 12.0% 64.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.1 73.4%
11-7 10.5% 54.8% 7.8% 47.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.0 4.7 51.0%
10-8 11.6% 34.0% 4.5% 29.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.7 30.9%
9-9 11.3% 17.1% 2.2% 14.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.4 15.2%
8-10 10.7% 5.2% 1.7% 3.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.2 3.5%
7-11 9.2% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.5%
6-12 7.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.1%
5-13 5.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.1%
4-14 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 36.1% 7.4% 28.7% 8.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.6 4.9 5.4 6.7 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 63.9 31.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.3 18.7