IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.7	#246
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.8	#124
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.4	#194

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.3	#296

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.6%	5.9%	3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.7	15.2

.500 or above	28.4%	39.0%	16.5%
.500 or above in Conference	42.6%	50.8%	33.4%
Conference Champion	4.2%	5.8%	2.3%
Last Place in Conference	12.8%	9.3%	16.8%

First Four	0.9%	0.8%	1.1%
First Round	4.2%	5.5%	2.7%
Second Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Away) - 52.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 6	13 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	308	@ High Point	W	69-68	53%
Nov 08, 2019	184	@ American	L	71-77	29%
Nov 12, 2019	107	@ Wofford	L	68-80	15%
Nov 15, 2019	245	Hampton	W	82-79	60%
Nov 18, 2019	38	@ Oklahoma	L	67-86	5%
Nov 21, 2019	113	@ Stanford	L	70-81	16%
Nov 26, 2019	264	Morehead St.	W	77-73	64%
Nov 30, 2019	104	@ Buffalo	L	77-89	15%
Dec 03, 2019	139	Old Dominion	L	65-68	40%
Dec 08, 2019	288	@ Fairfield	L	73-74	48%
Dec 19, 2019	221	@ Saint Joseph's	L	74-78	36%
Dec 22, 2019	248	St. Francis (PA)	W	78-77	50%
Dec 30, 2019	317	@ Elon	W	76-74	58%
Jan 02, 2020	148	@ Hofstra	L	73-82	24%
Jan 04, 2020	130	@ Northeastern	L	69-79	21%
Jan 09, 2020	268	UNC Wilmington	W	82-78	64%
Jan 11, 2020	123	College of Charleston	L	70-75	34%
Jan 16, 2020	240	@ Delaware	L	69-72	39%
Jan 18, 2020	254	@ Drexel	L	77-79	41%
Jan 23, 2020	232	James Madison	W	73-71	57%
Jan 25, 2020	181	Towson	L	70-71	50%
Jan 30, 2020	130	Northeastern	L	72-76	38%
Feb 01, 2020	148	Hofstra	L	76-79	42%
Feb 06, 2020	123	@ College of Charleston	L	67-78	19%
Feb 08, 2020	268	@ UNC Wilmington	L	79-81	44%
Feb 13, 2020	254	Drexel	W	80-76	61%
Feb 15, 2020	240	Delaware	W	72-69	59%
Feb 20, 2020	181	@ Towson	L	68-74	30%
Feb 22, 2020	232	@ James Madison	L	70-74	38%
Feb 29, 2020	317	Elon	W	79-71	74%
Projected Record						12 - 18	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	1.1	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.0		4.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.9	2.2	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.0				6.9	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.5	3.2	2.8	0.9	0.1	0.0					8.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.4	4.1	3.0	0.6	0.0							10.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.8	5.1	3.0	0.5	0.0	0.0							12.0	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.2	5.4	2.9	0.4	0.0									12.6	6th
7th					0.1	0.7	3.5	5.5	2.5	0.3	0.0										12.6	7th
8th				0.1	1.4	3.8	4.8	2.3	0.3	0.0											12.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	1.8	4.2	3.5	1.3	0.2	0.0												11.5	9th
10th	0.3	1.1	2.1	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.0	0.0													8.1	10th

Total	0.3	1.1	2.5	4.4	7.3	8.6	10.3	11.6	11.3	11.0	9.3	7.8	6.0	4.2	2.3	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
16-2	93.8%	0.5		0.4	0.0
15-3	77.5%	1.1		0.8	0.3	0.0
14-4	50.1%	1.1		0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	22.1%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	4.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.8%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.2%	4.2		2.3	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		64.9%	64.9%		10.9									0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.2%		47.2%	47.0%	0.3%	12.9											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		0.5%
16-2	0.5%		32.8%	32.6%	0.2%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4		0.3%
15-3	1.4%		31.6%	31.6%		13.8											0.0		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.9
14-4	2.3%		21.7%	21.7%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.8
13-5	4.2%		17.3%	17.3%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	3.4
12-6	6.0%		11.6%	11.6%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	5.3
11-7	7.8%		7.5%	7.5%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	7.2
10-8	9.3%		5.4%	5.4%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	8.8
9-9	11.0%		4.0%	4.0%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	10.6
8-10	11.3%		2.2%	2.2%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	11.1
7-11	11.6%		1.4%	1.4%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.5
6-12	10.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.2
5-13	8.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
4-14	7.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
3-15	4.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
2-16	2.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
1-17	1.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		4.6%	4.6%	0.0%	14.9									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.5	1.7	95.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%