South Florida
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#139
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#324
Pace70.7#156
Improvement-1.9#340

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#259
First Shot-6.9#332
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#23
Layup/Dunks-4.8#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#218
Freethrows+1.5#91
Improvement-0.7#291

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#68
First Shot+2.9#94
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#113
Layups/Dunks+0.5#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#245
Freethrows+0.7#152
Improvement-1.2#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.3 11.1 12.1
.500 or above 21.7% 29.2% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 24.6% 29.2% 18.2%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 11.6% 19.1%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 22 - 63 - 12
Quad 34 - 57 - 16
Quad 45 - 212 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 70-41 95%     1 - 0 +12.0 -9.3 +21.0
  Nov 10, 2019 96   Boston College L 60-74 48%     1 - 1 -12.1 -18.1 +7.5
  Nov 13, 2019 251   IUPUI L 53-70 81%     1 - 2 -24.7 -23.3 -1.9
  Nov 21, 2019 124   Wofford W 70-68 58%    
  Nov 25, 2019 127   Loyola Chicago L 64-65 48%    
  Dec 02, 2019 60   Furman L 65-69 34%    
  Dec 06, 2019 201   Dartmouth W 65-58 73%    
  Dec 15, 2019 259   Drexel W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 18, 2019 18   Utah St. L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 21, 2019 24   Florida St. L 62-73 15%    
  Dec 29, 2019 175   Florida Atlantic W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 01, 2020 95   @ SMU L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 04, 2020 85   Connecticut L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 07, 2020 240   @ East Carolina W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 12, 2020 16   Memphis L 72-82 20%    
  Jan 18, 2020 115   @ Central Florida L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 21, 2020 58   Wichita St. L 63-68 35%    
  Jan 26, 2020 40   @ Houston L 59-72 13%    
  Jan 29, 2020 211   @ Tulane W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 01, 2020 115   Central Florida W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 08, 2020 16   @ Memphis L 69-85 9%    
  Feb 12, 2020 40   Houston L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 15, 2020 130   Tulsa W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 20, 2020 58   @ Wichita St. L 60-71 18%    
  Feb 23, 2020 85   @ Connecticut L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 26, 2020 240   East Carolina W 73-64 77%    
  Mar 01, 2020 87   @ Temple L 64-71 27%    
  Mar 03, 2020 23   Cincinnati L 62-70 25%    
  Mar 07, 2020 95   SMU L 64-65 49%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.0 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 4.2 1.5 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.5 5.1 2.4 0.3 10.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 5.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 15.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.0 5.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 13.5 11th
12th 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 12th
Total 0.3 1.8 4.2 7.3 10.6 12.6 14.3 12.5 11.7 9.3 6.5 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 56.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 39.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 80.0% 20.0% 60.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0%
15-3 0.2% 47.9% 30.3% 17.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.3%
14-4 0.6% 32.4% 6.3% 26.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 27.9%
13-5 1.2% 21.0% 15.4% 5.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 6.7%
12-6 2.5% 9.3% 5.1% 4.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 4.4%
11-7 4.3% 5.1% 4.3% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.8%
10-8 6.5% 2.0% 1.7% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.3%
9-9 9.3% 1.5% 1.5% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.1%
8-10 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7
7-11 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 12.5
6-12 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 14.3
5-13 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 12.6
4-14 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-15 7.3% 7.3
2-16 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5 0.5%