South Florida
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#175
Pace63.8#312
Improvement+3.1#58

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#216
First Shot-2.7#268
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#84
Layup/Dunks+1.5#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#229
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement+1.3#102

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#65
First Shot+1.5#115
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#3
Layups/Dunks-0.2#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#254
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement+1.7#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 12.2 14.0
.500 or above 6.6% 18.2% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 14.1% 3.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.1% 14.6% 34.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.9% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 74 - 13
Quad 35 - 58 - 18
Quad 45 - 213 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 70-41 97%     1 - 0 +9.5 -8.3 +17.5
  Nov 10, 2019 143   Boston College L 60-74 68%     1 - 1 -15.5 -17.6 +3.6
  Nov 13, 2019 318   IUPUI L 53-70 92%     1 - 2 -29.4 -26.7 -3.1
  Nov 21, 2019 136   Wofford W 69-55 67%     2 - 2 +12.9 +4.3 +10.6
  Nov 25, 2019 90   Loyola Chicago W 66-55 41%     3 - 2 +16.8 +2.2 +15.3
  Nov 26, 2019 96   New Mexico St. L 45-65 43%     3 - 3 -14.8 -17.2 -1.1
  Nov 27, 2019 116   Nebraska L 67-74 50%     3 - 4 -3.6 +0.9 -5.1
  Dec 02, 2019 80   Furman W 65-55 48%     4 - 4 +13.9 -2.2 +16.7
  Dec 06, 2019 200   Dartmouth W 63-44 80%     5 - 4 +13.6 -3.9 +19.5
  Dec 15, 2019 223   Drexel W 81-61 83%     6 - 4 +13.4 +10.4 +4.3
  Dec 18, 2019 55   Utah St. L 74-76 OT 28%     6 - 5 +7.4 +6.0 +1.4
  Dec 21, 2019 17   Florida St. L 60-66 16%     6 - 6 +7.9 -5.1 +13.1
  Dec 29, 2019 186   Florida Atlantic W 60-58 76%     7 - 6 -2.0 -3.9 +2.2
  Jan 01, 2020 68   @ SMU L 64-82 24%     7 - 7 0 - 1 -7.3 -7.8 +0.7
  Jan 04, 2020 73   Connecticut W 75-60 46%     8 - 7 1 - 1 +19.3 +5.9 +13.2
  Jan 07, 2020 208   @ East Carolina L 59-62 63%     8 - 8 1 - 2 -3.1 -12.1 +9.0
  Jan 12, 2020 54   Memphis L 64-68 38%     8 - 9 1 - 3 +2.6 -2.5 +5.1
  Jan 18, 2020 112   @ Central Florida L 54-55 36%     8 - 10 1 - 4 +5.9 -6.3 +12.1
  Jan 21, 2020 40   Wichita St. L 43-56 32%     8 - 11 1 - 5 -4.9 -15.1 +7.8
  Jan 26, 2020 31   @ Houston L 57-69 13%    
  Jan 29, 2020 183   @ Tulane W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 01, 2020 112   Central Florida W 63-61 59%    
  Feb 08, 2020 54   @ Memphis L 62-71 19%    
  Feb 12, 2020 31   Houston L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 15, 2020 75   Tulsa L 60-61 47%    
  Feb 20, 2020 40   @ Wichita St. L 57-68 16%    
  Feb 23, 2020 73   @ Connecticut L 59-66 26%    
  Feb 26, 2020 208   East Carolina W 70-61 81%    
  Mar 01, 2020 93   @ Temple L 59-64 30%    
  Mar 03, 2020 44   Cincinnati L 61-65 35%    
  Mar 07, 2020 68   SMU L 64-66 45%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.2 2.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.0 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 6.5 3.0 0.2 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.2 8.5 5.5 0.8 17.1 9th
10th 0.0 2.2 10.1 8.7 1.3 0.0 22.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.8 8.3 8.2 1.2 0.0 19.5 11th
12th 0.5 3.3 6.6 5.9 1.1 0.0 17.4 12th
Total 0.5 3.3 8.4 16.5 21.8 20.6 15.2 8.7 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.3% 10.7% 10.7% 11.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.3% 3.2% 3.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
8-10 8.7% 1.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
7-11 15.2% 1.1% 1.1% 13.6 0.1 0.1 15.1
6-12 20.6% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 20.4
5-13 21.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.1 0.0 21.7
4-14 16.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 16.4
3-15 8.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.4
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%