Stony Brook
America East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#136
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#125
Pace71.7#112
Improvement+2.1#93

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#197
First Shot+0.6#149
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#275
Layup/Dunks-3.3#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#22
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#98
First Shot+3.6#76
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#248
Layups/Dunks+2.4#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#231
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement+2.0#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 26.1% 21.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 40.6% 41.8% 18.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.9% 26.1% 21.4%
Second Round2.6% 2.6% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 8
Quad 418 - 322 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 77   Yale L 69-74 OT 41%     0 - 1 -0.7 -9.3 +9.3
  Nov 09, 2019 9   @ Seton Hall L 57-74 7%     0 - 2 +1.6 -2.9 +3.8
  Nov 15, 2019 294   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-63 74%     1 - 2 +0.2 +1.4 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2019 261   UT Rio Grande Valley W 69-58 76%     2 - 2 +5.5 -3.3 +9.2
  Nov 17, 2019 149   North Dakota St. W 64-57 53%     3 - 2 +8.0 -6.0 +14.5
  Nov 23, 2019 321   @ Wagner W 87-84 OT 80%     4 - 2 -3.9 +6.1 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2019 206   @ Delaware L 61-75 57%     4 - 3 -13.9 -15.3 +1.7
  Dec 02, 2019 237   Manhattan W 65-47 80%     5 - 3 +10.8 -1.3 +13.8
  Dec 07, 2019 195   Brown W 79-63 75%     6 - 3 +10.8 +2.8 +7.7
  Dec 10, 2019 143   @ Hofstra L 63-71 41%     6 - 4 -3.8 -15.4 +12.2
  Dec 14, 2019 61   @ Providence L 78-82 19%     6 - 5 +7.0 +6.1 +1.2
  Dec 18, 2019 48   @ Virginia L 44-56 15%     6 - 6 +1.1 -6.2 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2019 221   @ American W 77-74 60%     7 - 6 +2.4 +2.7 -0.3
  Dec 29, 2019 283   Norfolk St. W 81-65 86%     8 - 6 +6.2 +4.4 +1.7
  Jan 05, 2020 336   @ Maine W 73-52 84%     9 - 6 1 - 0 +12.1 -3.4 +15.7
  Jan 08, 2020 81   @ Vermont W 81-77 23%     10 - 6 2 - 0 +13.5 +9.8 +3.5
  Jan 11, 2020 298   New Hampshire W 73-48 88%     11 - 6 3 - 0 +14.3 -6.5 +19.0
  Jan 15, 2020 282   @ Hartford L 65-68 72%     11 - 7 3 - 1 -7.0 -10.4 +3.5
  Jan 18, 2020 225   Albany W 70-62 79%     12 - 7 4 - 1 +1.4 -6.9 +8.1
  Jan 22, 2020 338   Binghamton W 79-62 95%    
  Jan 29, 2020 271   @ Umass Lowell W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 01, 2020 302   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-61 90%    
  Feb 05, 2020 271   Umass Lowell W 81-70 85%    
  Feb 08, 2020 298   @ New Hampshire W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 12, 2020 338   @ Binghamton W 76-65 85%    
  Feb 20, 2020 81   Vermont L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 22, 2020 336   Maine W 74-57 94%    
  Feb 26, 2020 282   Hartford W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 29, 2020 225   @ Albany W 69-66 59%    
  Mar 03, 2020 302   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-64 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.4 12.5 17.5 7.0 40.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 9.7 18.2 15.0 2.7 48.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.7 1.5 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.9 13.9 23.1 27.5 20.2 7.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 7.0    7.0
14-2 86.5% 17.5    10.8 6.6 0.0
13-3 45.3% 12.5    4.8 7.2 0.5 0.0
12-4 14.7% 3.4    0.7 2.0 0.7 0.0
11-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.6% 40.6 23.2 16.0 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 7.0% 38.2% 38.2% 12.4 0.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 4.3
14-2 20.2% 32.0% 32.0% 13.1 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.6 0.1 13.7
13-3 27.5% 27.2% 27.2% 13.6 0.3 3.1 3.5 0.7 0.0 20.0
12-4 23.1% 23.4% 23.4% 14.0 0.0 1.2 2.9 1.3 0.0 17.7
11-5 13.9% 19.6% 19.6% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.0 11.2
10-6 5.9% 13.9% 13.9% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 5.1
9-7 1.9% 13.1% 13.1% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.7
8-8 0.5% 13.4% 13.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-9 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 13.6 0.1 2.9 9.2 9.6 3.9 0.2 74.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 12.4 2.4 60.0 34.4 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%