Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#68
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#104
Pace58.8#355
Improvement+3.6#8

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#82
First Shot+2.6#104
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#114
Layup/Dunks+0.1#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#80
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement+1.5#46

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#75
First Shot+2.7#93
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#117
Layups/Dunks+7.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#325
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#315
Freethrows+2.8#34
Improvement+2.2#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 3.3% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 20.9% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.8% 20.0% 8.8%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.3
.500 or above 47.4% 54.6% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 24.1% 26.7% 17.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 13.1% 18.4%
First Four3.0% 3.4% 1.8%
First Round15.9% 19.0% 8.4%
Second Round7.9% 9.5% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.8% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Home) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 34 - 211 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 280   Youngstown St. W 75-59 93%     1 - 0 +6.5 +4.1 +4.1
  Nov 15, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts L 56-81 54%     1 - 1 -18.8 -14.9 -5.7
  Nov 18, 2021 333   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-59 97%     2 - 1 +0.9 -1.9 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2021 217   Cornell W 85-74 88%     3 - 1 +5.4 +5.8 -0.8
  Nov 26, 2021 10   LSU L 63-68 OT 20%     3 - 2 +11.2 +0.0 +11.1
  Nov 27, 2021 128   Oregon St. W 60-45 67%     4 - 2 +17.6 +4.1 +17.3
  Dec 01, 2021 106   Miami (FL) W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 05, 2021 29   Ohio St. L 65-67 41%    
  Dec 08, 2021 155   Wagner W 67-58 81%    
  Dec 11, 2021 21   @ Michigan St. L 59-69 19%    
  Dec 18, 2021 79   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-59 41%    
  Dec 22, 2021 276   Quinnipiac W 76-60 93%    
  Dec 29, 2021 356   Delaware St. W 83-54 99.6%   
  Jan 02, 2022 30   Indiana L 62-64 43%    
  Jan 05, 2022 42   @ Northwestern L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 08, 2022 2   Purdue L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 11, 2022 98   Rutgers W 63-58 68%    
  Jan 16, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 62-70 22%    
  Jan 19, 2022 82   Minnesota W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 22, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 26, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 59-67 24%    
  Jan 31, 2022 19   Iowa L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 05, 2022 31   @ Wisconsin L 56-64 24%    
  Feb 08, 2022 16   Michigan L 61-66 34%    
  Feb 12, 2022 82   @ Minnesota L 63-65 43%    
  Feb 15, 2022 21   Michigan St. L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 21, 2022 53   @ Maryland L 61-66 35%    
  Feb 25, 2022 42   Northwestern W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 28, 2022 109   Nebraska W 71-65 71%    
  Mar 03, 2022 33   @ Illinois L 63-71 24%    
  Mar 06, 2022 98   @ Rutgers L 60-61 46%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 3.3 0.9 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 4.2 2.4 0.2 8.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 4.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.8 4.4 1.1 0.1 11.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 4.8 5.1 1.4 0.1 13.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.6 4.3 4.8 1.8 0.2 12.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.0 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.9 13th
14th 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 8.9 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.5 4.7 7.8 10.6 13.0 13.2 12.1 11.1 8.8 5.7 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 80.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 56.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 41.8% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 5.4% 94.6% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.4% 97.9% 12.0% 85.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
13-7 2.7% 96.3% 3.3% 93.0% 7.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.2%
12-8 4.4% 87.6% 4.3% 83.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.6 87.1%
11-9 5.7% 62.9% 2.8% 60.1% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 61.8%
10-10 8.8% 39.3% 1.5% 37.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.3 38.4%
9-11 11.1% 11.4% 0.7% 10.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 9.8 10.7%
8-12 12.1% 2.2% 0.4% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8 1.8%
7-13 13.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 12.0 0.1 13.1 0.3%
6-14 13.0% 13.0
5-15 10.6% 10.6
4-16 7.8% 7.8
3-17 4.7% 4.7
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 17.6% 1.0% 16.6% 8.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 1.2 0.1 82.5 16.8%