St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#43
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#30
Pace62.0#333
Improvement+1.0#87

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#109
First Shot+1.5#131
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#130
Layup/Dunks+7.4#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#215
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement-0.6#254

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#14
First Shot+2.7#91
After Offensive Rebounds+5.2#3
Layups/Dunks-2.8#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#46
Freethrows+1.0#135
Improvement+1.6#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.3% 5.8% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 14.0% 15.4% 6.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.6% 65.6% 46.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.8% 63.9% 44.0%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 8.9
.500 or above 95.8% 96.9% 89.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 86.0% 77.0%
Conference Champion 3.5% 3.7% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four10.3% 10.5% 9.6%
First Round57.1% 60.2% 40.3%
Second Round28.9% 30.7% 18.7%
Sweet Sixteen9.9% 10.7% 5.4%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.3% 1.7%
Final Four1.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 7
Quad 24 - 27 - 9
Quad 38 - 215 - 10
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 266   Prairie View W 87-68 95%     1 - 0 +10.2 +10.5 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2021 201   Texas Southern W 67-58 91%     2 - 0 +4.2 -4.2 +8.8
  Nov 15, 2021 144   Southern Utah W 70-51 85%     3 - 0 +18.0 -4.3 +22.2
  Nov 17, 2021 175   Bellarmine W 73-64 89%     4 - 0 +5.5 -1.0 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2021 64   Notre Dame W 62-59 60%     5 - 0 +10.6 -1.6 +12.5
  Nov 23, 2021 56   Oregon W 62-50 57%     6 - 0 +20.3 -1.6 +23.0
  Nov 24, 2021 31   Wisconsin L 55-61 42%     6 - 1 +6.2 -1.8 +7.2
  Nov 29, 2021 132   UC Riverside W 64-53 84%    
  Dec 02, 2021 47   @ Utah St. L 63-66 41%    
  Dec 04, 2021 41   @ Colorado St. L 67-70 39%    
  Dec 11, 2021 95   UC Santa Barbara W 67-59 76%    
  Dec 17, 2021 50   San Diego St. W 59-58 54%    
  Dec 22, 2021 90   Missouri St. W 71-64 75%    
  Dec 28, 2021 113   Yale W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 01, 2022 49   San Francisco W 65-61 65%    
  Jan 06, 2022 77   @ Santa Clara W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 26   @ BYU L 61-67 29%    
  Jan 13, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine W 70-59 83%    
  Jan 15, 2022 188   Pacific W 68-54 91%    
  Jan 20, 2022 77   Santa Clara W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 22, 2022 108   @ Loyola Marymount W 65-62 60%    
  Jan 27, 2022 49   @ San Francisco L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 73-56 93%    
  Feb 03, 2022 254   @ Portland W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 108   Loyola Marymount W 68-59 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 142   San Diego W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 64-80 8%    
  Feb 19, 2022 26   BYU L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 24, 2022 142   @ San Diego W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 26, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 67-77 19%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.7 8.9 5.3 1.4 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 8.9 9.3 3.0 0.2 24.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 3.0 8.3 6.7 1.2 0.0 19.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 6.5 4.3 0.7 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.5 0.3 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.3 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.2 8.4 12.3 16.0 18.0 16.1 12.2 6.5 2.8 0.6 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
14-2 50.4% 1.4    0.6 0.8 0.0
13-3 16.1% 1.1    0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-4 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.4 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.6% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-2 2.8% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 4.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-3 6.5% 98.8% 11.6% 87.2% 5.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.6%
12-4 12.2% 95.8% 8.6% 87.2% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 95.4%
11-5 16.1% 88.0% 5.5% 82.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.4 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.3 1.9 87.3%
10-6 18.0% 72.0% 3.8% 68.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.6 3.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 5.0 70.9%
9-7 16.0% 53.7% 1.9% 51.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.3 1.1 0.1 7.4 52.8%
8-8 12.3% 33.3% 2.3% 31.1% 10.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.1 8.2 31.8%
7-9 8.4% 12.3% 1.0% 11.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 7.3 11.5%
6-10 4.2% 3.8% 0.5% 3.3% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0 3.4%
5-11 1.8% 1.8
4-12 0.8% 0.8
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 62.6% 4.7% 57.9% 8.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.8 3.8 4.8 6.1 6.5 10.0 10.6 11.1 4.1 0.3 0.0 37.4 60.8%