IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.2	#312
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.0	#296
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.6	#320

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#284

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.5%	4.3%	1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	15.0	15.6

.500 or above	22.5%	39.7%	13.5%
.500 or above in Conference	30.8%	44.7%	23.6%
Conference Champion	2.4%	4.5%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	23.4%	13.2%	28.9%

First Four	1.1%	1.3%	0.9%
First Round	1.9%	3.5%	1.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 8
Quad 4	10 - 10	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2022	296	@ Marist	L	63-67	34%
Nov 13, 2022	123	@ George Mason	L	57-73	8%
Nov 16, 2022	295	William & Mary	W	70-68	56%
Nov 19, 2022	325	@ NJIT	L	64-66	43%
Nov 23, 2022	102	@ Georgetown	L	64-81	8%
Nov 26, 2022	291	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	67-71	36%
Nov 29, 2022	300	Albany	W	65-63	57%
Dec 06, 2022	267	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	59-66	29%
Dec 10, 2022	196	@ George Washington	L	64-75	18%
Dec 13, 2022	272	VMI	L	71-72	49%
Dec 22, 2022	244	Siena	L	64-67	42%
Dec 30, 2022	271	@ Lafayette	L	63-69	30%
Jan 02, 2023	297	Loyola Maryland	W	65-63	56%
Jan 05, 2023	317	@ Holy Cross	L	67-70	41%
Jan 08, 2023	233	Boston University	L	65-68	40%
Jan 11, 2023	266	@ Army	L	66-73	30%
Jan 14, 2023	282	@ Lehigh	L	67-72	34%
Jan 18, 2023	271	Lafayette	L	66-67	49%
Jan 21, 2023	113	@ Colgate	L	61-77	11%
Jan 25, 2023	266	Army	L	69-70	48%
Jan 28, 2023	246	@ Navy	L	58-67	25%
Feb 01, 2023	274	Bucknell	L	71-72	50%
Feb 04, 2023	113	Colgate	L	64-74	22%
Feb 08, 2023	233	@ Boston University	L	62-71	24%
Feb 11, 2023	317	Holy Cross	W	70-67	60%
Feb 13, 2023	274	@ Bucknell	L	68-74	32%
Feb 18, 2023	282	Lehigh	W	70-69	53%
Feb 22, 2023	246	Navy	L	61-64	42%
Feb 25, 2023	297	@ Loyola Maryland	L	62-66	37%
Projected Record						11 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.0				4.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.3	2.4	1.9	0.7	0.1						6.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.0	3.4	1.9	0.5	0.0							8.3	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.6	4.1	2.0	0.3	0.0								9.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	3.2	4.5	2.0	0.3	0.0									10.8	6th
7th				0.0	0.1	1.1	3.7	4.9	2.0	0.2											12.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	1.9	4.7	5.0	1.8	0.2	0.0											13.9	8th
9th		0.1	1.0	3.2	5.2	4.1	1.4	0.1	0.0												15.1	9th
10th	1.3	3.0	4.6	4.5	2.4	0.7	0.1														16.5	10th

Total	1.3	3.1	5.5	7.9	9.6	10.6	11.0	10.5	9.7	8.6	7.1	5.4	4.1	2.7	1.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	88.9%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	70.0%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0
14-4	40.3%	0.6		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	17.8%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.4%	2.4		1.3	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		71.8%	64.8%	7.0%	12.6													0.0	0.0				0.0		20.0%
17-1	0.1%		44.1%	44.1%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-2	0.4%		32.9%	32.9%		13.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
15-3	0.8%		25.8%	25.8%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
14-4	1.5%		16.1%	16.1%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.3
13-5	2.7%		12.2%	12.2%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	2.3
12-6	4.1%		7.5%	7.5%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	3.8
11-7	5.4%		5.9%	5.9%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.1
10-8	7.1%		3.2%	3.2%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	6.9
9-9	8.6%		2.9%	2.9%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	8.3
8-10	9.7%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																0.0	0.2	9.5
7-11	10.5%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
6-12	11.0%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	10.9
5-13	10.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
4-14	9.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
3-15	7.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
2-16	5.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
1-17	3.1%																							3.1
0-18	1.3%																							1.3

Total	100%		2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	15.2												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.5	97.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%