Preseason Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#95
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.4#109
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.4% 3.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 17.6% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.8% 13.1% 0.6%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 12.3
.500 or above 58.3% 59.2% 13.0%
.500 or above in Conference 50.4% 51.1% 14.8%
Conference Champion 4.3% 4.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 8.1% 27.5%
First Four3.4% 3.5% 0.3%
First Round15.7% 16.0% 1.7%
Second Round7.4% 7.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 44 - 10
Quad 35 - 39 - 13
Quad 47 - 115 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 82-60 98%    
  Nov 11, 2022 28   @ Dayton L 61-71 19%    
  Nov 15, 2022 110   New Mexico W 81-76 67%    
  Nov 19, 2022 313   Evansville W 76-58 94%    
  Nov 22, 2022 158   Louisiana W 71-62 77%    
  Nov 27, 2022 301   Lamar W 79-62 93%    
  Nov 30, 2022 39   @ Texas A&M L 66-75 24%    
  Dec 03, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 74-56 93%    
  Dec 07, 2022 61   Arizona St. L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 10, 2022 19   TCU L 65-73 25%    
  Dec 22, 2022 101   Iona W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 01, 2023 136   Tulsa W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 05, 2023 5   @ Houston L 59-74 12%    
  Jan 08, 2023 92   @ Central Florida L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 11, 2023 82   Tulane W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 53   Cincinnati L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 18, 2023 136   @ Tulsa W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 22, 2023 94   Wichita St. W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 26, 2023 35   @ Memphis L 70-79 23%    
  Jan 29, 2023 142   South Florida W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 01, 2023 82   @ Tulane L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 04, 2023 192   @ East Carolina W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 08, 2023 93   Temple W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 12, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 16, 2023 5   Houston L 62-71 24%    
  Feb 19, 2023 192   East Carolina W 77-67 78%    
  Feb 25, 2023 142   @ South Florida W 67-66 54%    
  Mar 02, 2023 35   Memphis L 73-76 40%    
  Mar 05, 2023 53   @ Cincinnati L 69-76 30%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.8 2.3 1.0 0.2 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.2 1.2 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.1 1.0 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.1 11th
Total 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.4 8.9 10.3 11.0 10.7 10.2 9.1 7.2 5.5 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 86.3% 1.0    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 54.5% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 28.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 99.4% 28.8% 70.6% 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
16-2 1.1% 96.9% 23.8% 73.1% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.9%
15-3 2.2% 90.9% 17.8% 73.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 88.9%
14-4 3.8% 79.1% 16.3% 62.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 75.0%
13-5 5.5% 58.7% 10.4% 48.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 53.9%
12-6 7.2% 37.2% 8.4% 28.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.6 31.5%
11-7 9.1% 21.4% 6.4% 15.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.2 16.0%
10-8 10.2% 11.7% 5.4% 6.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 6.7%
9-9 10.7% 6.0% 4.2% 1.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 1.8%
8-10 11.0% 3.2% 3.0% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7 0.2%
7-11 10.3% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.0 0.1%
6-12 8.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.7
5-13 7.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
4-14 5.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.2
3-15 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-16 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-17 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 17.3% 5.1% 12.2% 9.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 82.7 12.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 77.8 11.1 11.1