North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#22
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#52
Pace69.6#153
Improvement-0.3#263

Offense
Total Offense+9.7#13
First Shot+7.3#22
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#46
Layup/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#268
Freethrows+5.8#2
Improvement-0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#27
Layups/Dunks+0.0#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#225
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement-0.2#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.7% 4.0% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 7.2% 10.5% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 23.1% 30.8% 12.1%
Top 6 Seed 44.8% 55.3% 29.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.4% 91.5% 76.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.8% 89.8% 73.1%
Average Seed 6.3 5.8 7.2
.500 or above 96.4% 98.6% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 97.4% 89.4%
Conference Champion 18.8% 24.9% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.7% 2.5% 5.3%
First Round83.8% 90.4% 74.2%
Second Round56.8% 64.2% 46.2%
Sweet Sixteen27.1% 32.3% 19.6%
Elite Eight11.8% 14.3% 8.2%
Final Four4.7% 5.9% 2.9%
Championship Game1.9% 2.4% 1.1%
National Champion0.7% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 8
Quad 26 - 210 - 9
Quad 38 - 118 - 10
Quad 43 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 138   UNC Wilmington W 69-56 91%     1 - 0 +12.1 +3.1 +10.2
  Nov 11, 2022 81   College of Charleston W 102-86 84%     2 - 0 +19.7 +19.6 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2022 172   Gardner-Webb W 72-66 94%     3 - 0 +2.8 +0.8 +1.9
  Nov 20, 2022 60   James Madison W 80-64 79%     4 - 0 +21.6 +4.3 +16.1
  Nov 24, 2022 110   Portland W 89-81 83%     5 - 0 +12.1 +12.6 -0.7
  Nov 25, 2022 33   Iowa St. L 65-70 61%     5 - 1 +6.3 +7.2 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2022 13   Alabama L 101-103 4OT 41%     5 - 2 +14.6 +6.0 +9.2
  Nov 30, 2022 7   @ Indiana L 65-77 25%     5 - 3 +9.2 +3.2 +6.0
  Dec 04, 2022 59   @ Virginia Tech W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 10, 2022 113   Georgia Tech W 77-64 89%    
  Dec 13, 2022 270   The Citadel W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 17, 2022 23   Ohio St. W 76-75 50%    
  Dec 21, 2022 58   Michigan W 77-72 69%    
  Dec 30, 2022 106   @ Pittsburgh W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 04, 2023 66   Wake Forest W 82-73 80%    
  Jan 07, 2023 77   Notre Dame W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 10, 2023 14   @ Virginia L 64-69 31%    
  Jan 14, 2023 210   @ Louisville W 77-63 89%    
  Jan 17, 2023 151   Boston College W 77-61 92%    
  Jan 21, 2023 31   North Carolina St. W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 24, 2023 97   @ Syracuse W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 01, 2023 106   Pittsburgh W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 18   @ Duke L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 07, 2023 66   @ Wake Forest W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 76   Clemson W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 13, 2023 36   Miami (FL) W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 19, 2023 31   @ North Carolina St. L 78-79 45%    
  Feb 22, 2023 77   @ Notre Dame W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 25, 2023 14   Virginia W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 27, 2023 188   @ Florida St. W 81-69 86%    
  Mar 04, 2023 18   Duke W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.7 5.7 4.2 1.6 0.3 18.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.8 6.1 2.2 0.2 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.2 5.0 1.2 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.1 4.0 0.7 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.1 8.1 11.2 13.5 15.5 14.3 12.0 8.0 4.4 1.6 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 95.1% 4.2    3.5 0.7 0.0
17-3 71.4% 5.7    3.6 1.9 0.2
16-4 39.4% 4.7    1.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.8% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.8% 18.8 11.4 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.4% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.0% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 3.3 0.6 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.0% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 4.4 0.2 0.5 2.1 3.8 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.3% 99.7% 16.7% 82.9% 5.6 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.7 3.7 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 15.5% 98.4% 14.9% 83.5% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.5 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 98.1%
13-7 13.5% 94.2% 13.8% 80.3% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.0 3.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 93.2%
12-8 11.2% 84.2% 10.8% 73.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 82.3%
11-9 8.1% 61.7% 8.7% 53.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 58.0%
10-10 5.1% 36.4% 7.7% 28.7% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 31.1%
9-11 3.1% 11.6% 4.8% 6.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 7.2%
8-12 1.5% 6.9% 5.9% 0.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.0%
7-13 0.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 85.4% 15.4% 70.1% 6.3 2.7 4.5 6.3 9.6 10.6 11.0 11.8 9.8 7.9 5.8 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.6 82.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 82.4 17.6