Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#72
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#96
Pace66.5#237
Improvement+0.2#48

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#90
First Shot+7.5#21
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#359
Layup/Dunks+5.3#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement+0.0#149

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#56
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#48
Layups/Dunks+4.6#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#329
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement+0.2#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 21.8% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.9% 14.7% 4.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.5
.500 or above 89.9% 91.1% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 77.4% 64.7%
Conference Champion 8.9% 9.3% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.0% 1.8%
First Four4.3% 4.4% 2.6%
First Round18.8% 19.6% 8.6%
Second Round7.1% 7.4% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 6
Quad 23 - 45 - 10
Quad 35 - 210 - 11
Quad 48 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 172   Gardner-Webb W 65-63 84%     1 - 0 -1.2 -4.6 +3.5
  Nov 11, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 80-69 93%     2 - 0 +2.4 +7.1 -4.0
  Nov 14, 2022 251   Weber St. W 77-52 91%     3 - 0 +17.6 +2.2 +16.1
  Nov 17, 2022 232   South Carolina W 85-53 85%     4 - 0 +28.3 +11.6 +16.2
  Nov 18, 2022 81   @ College of Charleston L 64-74 42%     4 - 1 -0.3 -8.5 +8.4
  Nov 20, 2022 43   Penn St. L 56-68 41%     4 - 2 -1.9 -9.9 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 88-45 99%     5 - 2 +21.2 +2.3 +17.5
  Nov 30, 2022 132   Loyola Marymount W 87-71 78%     6 - 2 +15.6 +11.3 +4.4
  Dec 03, 2022 254   Northern Colorado W 83-68 92%    
  Dec 08, 2022 44   @ Colorado L 69-74 31%    
  Dec 18, 2022 32   @ St. Mary's L 57-65 23%    
  Dec 21, 2022 73   USC W 68-67 50%    
  Dec 28, 2022 57   @ New Mexico L 71-76 34%    
  Dec 31, 2022 185   San Jose St. W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 04, 2023 69   @ Nevada L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 07, 2023 154   Fresno St. W 66-56 81%    
  Jan 10, 2023 219   Air Force W 69-55 90%    
  Jan 14, 2023 78   @ UNLV L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 18, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 21, 2023 146   @ Wyoming W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 61   @ Boise St. L 60-64 37%    
  Jan 31, 2023 78   UNLV W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 04, 2023 34   Utah St. L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 07, 2023 219   @ Air Force W 66-58 76%    
  Feb 15, 2023 61   Boise St. W 63-61 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 154   @ Fresno St. W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 21, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 24, 2023 146   Wyoming W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 28, 2023 185   @ San Jose St. W 69-64 69%    
  Mar 03, 2023 57   New Mexico W 74-73 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.1 3.1 0.8 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 15.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.7 2.8 0.3 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.8 2.7 0.2 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.2 2.0 0.2 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 1.1 0.2 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.7 9.6 12.8 14.8 14.5 12.8 10.0 6.3 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 96.5% 1.2    1.1 0.2
15-3 76.4% 2.7    1.8 0.8 0.1
14-4 44.5% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 14.8% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 4.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 97.7% 17.5% 80.1% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
16-2 1.3% 94.0% 25.2% 68.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.0%
15-3 3.5% 83.6% 18.2% 65.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 80.0%
14-4 6.3% 62.8% 14.7% 48.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 56.3%
13-5 10.0% 44.3% 12.2% 32.1% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 36.6%
12-6 12.8% 25.3% 10.4% 14.9% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.6 16.7%
11-7 14.5% 14.0% 8.2% 5.9% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.5 6.4%
10-8 14.8% 7.9% 6.5% 1.4% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.7 1.5%
9-9 12.8% 5.6% 5.3% 0.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.0 0.4%
8-10 9.6% 4.0% 4.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.2
7-11 6.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
6-12 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
5-13 2.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 2.0
4-14 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.9% 8.1% 12.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 79.1 13.9%