Iowa
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#24
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#30
Pace73.8#69
Improvement-0.3#268

Offense
Total Offense+11.4#6
First Shot+7.2#25
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#11
Layup/Dunks+6.3#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
Freethrows+1.8#76
Improvement+0.0#169

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#98
First Shot+5.4#47
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#321
Layups/Dunks-3.8#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#33
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows+5.2#8
Improvement-0.3#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.4% 4.0% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 7.3% 11.3% 3.8%
Top 4 Seed 26.5% 37.2% 17.5%
Top 6 Seed 51.2% 64.5% 40.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.4% 91.5% 76.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.0% 90.7% 74.9%
Average Seed 5.9 5.3 6.5
.500 or above 95.2% 98.5% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.1% 83.6% 73.5%
Conference Champion 6.7% 8.4% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four3.3% 2.5% 4.1%
First Round81.9% 90.3% 74.7%
Second Round56.6% 65.5% 49.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.3% 34.1% 21.6%
Elite Eight11.7% 15.0% 9.0%
Final Four4.8% 6.3% 3.6%
Championship Game2.1% 2.8% 1.4%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: Duke (Neutral) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 352   Bethune-Cookman W 89-58 99%     1 - 0 +13.7 +2.4 +9.4
  Nov 11, 2022 274   N.C. A&T W 112-71 97%     2 - 0 +32.3 +19.9 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2022 52   @ Seton Hall W 83-67 56%     3 - 0 +28.4 +18.6 +9.8
  Nov 21, 2022 289   Nebraska Omaha W 100-64 98%     4 - 0 +26.2 +16.1 +8.2
  Nov 25, 2022 76   Clemson W 74-71 74%     5 - 0 +10.2 +5.6 +4.7
  Nov 26, 2022 53   TCU L 66-79 67%     5 - 1 -3.6 -1.3 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2022 113   Georgia Tech W 81-65 89%     6 - 1 +16.9 +17.5 +0.7
  Dec 06, 2022 18   Duke L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 08, 2022 33   Iowa St. W 75-69 71%    
  Dec 11, 2022 35   Wisconsin W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 17, 2022 234   Southeast Missouri St. W 90-69 97%    
  Dec 21, 2022 356   Eastern Illinois W 91-59 99.9%   
  Dec 29, 2022 92   @ Nebraska W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 01, 2023 43   @ Penn St. W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 05, 2023 7   Indiana L 78-79 46%    
  Jan 08, 2023 39   @ Rutgers W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 12, 2023 58   Michigan W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 15, 2023 12   Maryland L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 18, 2023 90   Northwestern W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 21, 2023 23   @ Ohio St. L 78-81 40%    
  Jan 26, 2023 37   @ Michigan St. W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 29, 2023 39   Rutgers W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 10   Illinois L 81-82 48%    
  Feb 09, 2023 3   @ Purdue L 72-81 22%    
  Feb 12, 2023 166   @ Minnesota W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 16, 2023 23   Ohio St. W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 19, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 22, 2023 35   @ Wisconsin W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 25, 2023 37   Michigan St. W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 28, 2023 7   @ Indiana L 75-82 26%    
  Mar 05, 2023 92   Nebraska W 81-70 85%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.0 8.4 11.1 12.2 13.3 13.3 10.9 8.0 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
18-2 86.9% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
17-3 72.8% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 38.9% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 13.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 2.0 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.2% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 2.7 0.6 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.0% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 3.4 0.2 1.1 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.9% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.3 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.6 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.3% 99.9% 8.5% 91.4% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.6 4.3 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 13.3% 99.1% 6.9% 92.1% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 12.2% 96.8% 6.5% 90.3% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.4 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 96.6%
10-10 11.1% 87.8% 5.2% 82.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 87.1%
9-11 8.4% 62.0% 4.3% 57.7% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 60.3%
8-12 6.0% 26.3% 3.1% 23.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 24.0%
7-13 3.7% 7.6% 3.3% 4.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4 4.4%
6-14 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.2%
5-15 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 83.4% 7.6% 75.8% 5.9 2.4 4.8 9.1 10.2 12.0 12.7 10.4 8.2 5.2 4.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.6 82.0%