Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#44
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#58
Pace65.0#273
Improvement-0.3#348

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#46
First Shot+6.9#28
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#277
Layup/Dunks-4.4#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.6#6
Freethrows-1.7#279
Improvement-0.1#280

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#54
First Shot+4.7#55
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#189
Layups/Dunks+4.6#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows+1.8#89
Improvement-0.2#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 4.1% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.0% 14.0% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.8% 52.8% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.9% 51.0% 29.4%
Average Seed 8.2 7.9 8.8
.500 or above 73.6% 82.6% 61.2%
.500 or above in Conference 37.1% 46.9% 23.6%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.7% 6.4%
First Four6.1% 6.4% 5.8%
First Round40.8% 49.9% 28.3%
Second Round21.4% 27.0% 13.6%
Sweet Sixteen6.6% 8.7% 3.6%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.1% 1.3%
Final Four0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Home) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 13
Quad 33 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 208   Winthrop W 93-68 92%     1 - 0 +19.7 +13.7 +5.8
  Nov 10, 2022 295   Loyola Maryland W 90-65 96%     2 - 0 +14.6 +19.9 -3.4
  Nov 14, 2022 54   Butler W 68-62 64%     3 - 0 +12.3 +0.3 +12.1
  Nov 17, 2022 87   Furman W 73-68 65%     4 - 0 +11.2 +7.1 +4.5
  Nov 18, 2022 58   Virginia Tech L 59-61 55%     4 - 1 +6.7 -4.8 +11.3
  Nov 20, 2022 74   Colorado St. W 68-56 60%     5 - 1 +19.5 +2.3 +17.7
  Nov 25, 2022 273   Lafayette W 70-57 95%     6 - 1 +4.5 +3.6 +2.6
  Nov 29, 2022 76   @ Clemson L 94-101 2OT 50%     6 - 2 +3.2 +9.3 -4.9
  Dec 07, 2022 36   Michigan St. W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 10, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 67-77 16%    
  Dec 18, 2022 293   Canisius W 80-60 97%    
  Dec 22, 2022 150   Quinnipiac W 75-63 86%    
  Dec 29, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 84-55 99.7%   
  Jan 01, 2023 24   Iowa L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 04, 2023 57   @ Michigan L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 08, 2023 3   Purdue L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 11, 2023 6   Indiana L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 17, 2023 34   @ Wisconsin L 61-65 36%    
  Jan 21, 2023 91   Nebraska W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 24, 2023 39   @ Rutgers L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 29, 2023 57   Michigan W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 01, 2023 3   @ Purdue L 62-75 13%    
  Feb 05, 2023 91   @ Nebraska W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 08, 2023 34   Wisconsin W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 11   @ Maryland L 64-74 19%    
  Feb 14, 2023 8   Illinois L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 18, 2023 165   @ Minnesota W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 23, 2023 21   @ Ohio St. L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 26, 2023 39   Rutgers W 66-64 59%    
  Mar 01, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 63-62 55%    
  Mar 05, 2023 11   Maryland L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.6 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 5.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.4 4.1 0.7 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.2 4.2 1.0 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.7 4.0 1.1 0.0 11.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 2.9 1.0 0.0 9.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.8 10.1 12.3 13.3 13.3 12.1 9.5 6.8 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 72.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 57.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.2% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.5% 99.8% 4.9% 94.9% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 4.3% 99.3% 7.3% 92.0% 5.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-8 6.8% 99.1% 5.0% 94.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-9 9.5% 95.0% 4.5% 90.5% 8.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.8%
10-10 12.1% 82.5% 3.9% 78.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.2 2.5 1.1 0.1 2.1 81.7%
9-11 13.3% 50.5% 2.9% 47.6% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.6 49.1%
8-12 13.3% 14.3% 2.4% 11.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.4 12.1%
7-13 12.3% 2.7% 2.3% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0 0.4%
6-14 10.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.9
5-15 6.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.7
4-16 3.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.9
3-17 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-18 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 43.8% 3.3% 40.5% 8.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.5 6.6 7.5 6.7 5.4 5.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 56.2 41.9%